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Subros LtdQ1 FY25

Subros Ltd Q1 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 825P/E: 29.0Market Cap: ₹4.9K CrSector: Industrial Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 2

Fundraise

Yes

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

3 of 5 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Subros expects overall industry growth for FY '26 to be muted, around 1% to 3%, but aims to outperform the industry growth significantly.
  • Growth drivers include increased AC penetration, especially mandatory AC in N2, N3 category trucks from October 2025.
  • The company targets more than 50% market share in the truck AC segment, with expected steep ramp-up post-October 2025.
  • EV bus segment is promising with almost 100% AC penetration expected due to battery cooling needs; large OEM tenders secured.
  • Content per vehicle expected to increase 1-2% in EV passenger vehicles (excluding electric compressors), with further growth with compressor localization when volumes justify.
  • In commercial vehicle and bus segment, 50-60% growth expected from current levels by FY '27.
  • Planned capacity and geographical expansion through the Kharkhoda plant will support growth.
  • Alternative fuel segment (CNG, hybrid, EV) currently contributes ~20% of revenue, targeted for growth.

Margin guidance

Category 2
  • Subros expects to continue revenue growth outperforming industry, targeting 1%-3% industry growth but expecting better company growth driven by increasing AC penetration, especially in trucks from Oct 2025 regulation.
  • Margin improvement efforts are ongoing with a long-term target of 12%+ EBITDA margin, recently crossed 10.22% annual margin; FY '27 is indicated as a potential timeline to reach 12%.
  • New segments such as truck AC (N2, N3 category) with over 50% market share target and railway segments are expected to drive future growth.
  • EV and green mobility products currently contribute ~20% of revenue, with plans to expand HVAC and associated products aiding growth.
  • Capex of INR 150 crores plus ongoing investments are expected to support expansion and automation, especially in the new Kharkhoda plant.
  • Overall profitability showed strong improvement: 36.49% Q4 and 44.61% annual profit before tax growth YoY, reflecting operational efficiencies and localization.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • Subros plans an investment of INR 150 crores for the Kharkhoda project.
  • The company intends to fund 75% of this through term loan borrowings, approximately INR 112 crores.
  • As of now, no loans have been taken, but the company aims to avail term loans up to INR 112 crores during the financial year.
  • The remaining capex will be funded from internal accruals.
  • No mention of any equity fundraising during the call.
  • Focus remains on using internal cash and debt for expansion and capacity increase.

Order book

Yes
  • Subros has secured almost INR 150 crores worth of orders in the truck AC (N2, N3 category) segment.
  • They anticipate maintaining more than 50% market share in this segment going forward.
  • For the railway segment, Subros has an order book of around INR 40 crores in tenders; INR 17 crores delivered and INR 23 crores expected to be delivered in the first 3 quarters.
  • Large tenders for EV buses have already been agreed with major OEMs; preparing for initial product introduction and battery cooling solutions.
  • The bus AC segment overall market size is about INR 400 crores to 450 crores; expecting to capture a significant market share.
  • The Kharkhoda plant project has a capex of INR 150 crores with ongoing construction; planned SOP next year Q1.
  • Half-year impact for CV business in FY '26 due to midyear SOP; full growth expected in FY '27.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Subros is undertaking a key strategic project at the Kharkhoda plant for capacity expansion and automation.
  • The Board has approved an investment proposal for this project.
  • Land acquisition for Kharkhoda plant is completed and construction is underway.
  • Planned capex for the Kharkhoda project is INR 150 crores.
  • The company intends to finance approximately 75% of the Kharkhoda investment (around INR 112 crores) through term loans during the financial year, with the remainder from internal accruals.
  • Besides Kharkhoda, there is no mention of other specific capex plans but overall capex including Kharkhoda and routine investments could be about INR 270 crores for the year.
  • The Kharkhoda plant is expected to start production by Q1 of the next fiscal year.

How does Subros Ltd rank vs peers in Industrial Products?

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1Subros Ltd
Rev 3Mar 2

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