Ameren Corporation Q2 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Sales growth is driven primarily by large load customers, especially hyperscale data centers, with 2.2 gigawatts of signed energy services agreements (ESAs) providing upside beyond the base assumption. - Current plans assume about 1.2 gigawatts of load growth by 2030, representing a 6.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in Missouri. - Generation plans accommodate additional sales growth beyond that, with up to 2 gigawatts of sales by 2032 and 3.5 gigawatts by 2040. - There is optimism about converting 1.2 gigawatts of remaining construction agreements into ESAs soon, further increasing sales. - Ongoing conversations with hyperscalers also explore expansion beyond signed ESAs, signaling potential longer-term sales growth over 10-15 years. - The company plans to update sales forecasts in the upcoming Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filing in September to reflect these evolving expectations.

- Ameren expects strong earnings growth with 2026 EPS guidance reaffirmed at $5.25 to $5.45. - First quarter 2026 EPS was $1.28, up from $1.07 in Q1 2025, driven by increased infrastructure investments. - Anticipated consistent 6% to 8% compound annual earnings growth from 2026 through 2030. - Growth primarily supported by 10.6% compound annual rate base growth reflecting strategic capital allocation. - Upside potential exists from faster ramp of sales in energy service agreements (ESAs), particularly the 2.2 GW signed in Missouri. - Incremental sales growth beyond 1.2 GW assumed by 2030 could further boost earnings. - Ongoing execution of robust capital and infrastructure plans expected to drive long-term shareholder value and profits.

- Ameren has a $32 billion capital plan for the next 5 years, with generation spend expected to be additive to this overall plan. - Investments include more than 5 gigawatts of new energy and capacity resources planned by 2030 (solar, wind, gas-fired combined cycle and simple cycle plants, and battery storage). - Two 800 MW simple cycle natural gas energy centers (Castle Bluff and Big Hollow) under construction, with Big Hollow including 400 MW battery storage. - Significant investment in transmission infrastructure, including competitive projects in the MISO region, with potential upside from large load growth and generator interconnections. - Ongoing investments to enhance grid reliability and resiliency, including tree trimming and infrastructure modernization. - Potential acceleration of renewable and dispatchable resources, including renewables, batteries, and possibly fuel cells, especially to meet large load growth. - Future rate cases planned to recover investments and support continued infrastructure upgrades.

- Ameren successfully completed planned debt issuances at Ameren Missouri and Ameren Parent in Q1 2026. - They continue to progress with expected equity issuances of approximately $4 billion from 2026 through 2030. - To satisfy 2026 equity needs, about $600 million of equity was sold forward last May (approx. 6.4 million shares), expected to issue near end of 2026. - In 2026 so far, another $600 million of common stock has been sold forward under the at-the-market program. - Ameren intends to be thoughtful in executing its equity plan going forward. - Credit ratings remain strong with S&P affirming BBB+ and stable outlook in April 2026; Moody’s credit opinion update expected soon. - The company remains focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and supporting credit ratings while funding its infrastructure plan.

- Ameren has 3.4 gigawatts of construction agreements, with 2.2 gigawatts under executed Energy Service Agreements (ESAs) and sites secured; construction expected to start soon, with some sales ramping in the current 5-year period. - An additional 1.2 gigawatts of construction agreements exist, with potential to convert more into ESAs in the near term. - Filed or expected to file CCNs for approximately 3 gigawatts of new generation, including the 2.1 GW West Alton combined cycle plant slated for 2031. - Robust investments planned across electric, natural gas, and transmission infrastructure, with a capital pipeline exceeding $70 billion through 2035. - Transmission project bids submitted for multiple MISO competitive projects, with more under evaluation. - Deployment of renewables, batteries, and potential dispatchable resources like fuel cells are being considered to supplement generation.