Antony Waste Handling Cell Ltd Q4 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Post commercialization of two Andhra Pradesh waste-to-energy projects in FY '29, annual revenue is expected to start between Rs. 90 crores to Rs. 140 crores, scaling up to Rs. 130-140 crores, adding to existing Rs. 1,000+ crores revenue. - Revenue growth for next year (FY '27) is targeted at 15%-18%, aiming around Rs. 1,200 crores from approximately Rs. 1,000 crores currently. - Long-term revenue growth guidance is a 20% CAGR moving forward, supported by new project wins such as Atkoli, 2 BMC C&T contracts, and Andhra Pradesh WTE projects. - Contribution from Construction & Demolition segment expected to double from current 5% as policy changes drive revenue growth in coming quarters. - Volume seasonality observed with 55% of tonnage during wet season (June to October), boosting volumes. - New tenders, especially in Eastern India and Tamil Nadu, expected post elections, indicating potential for further project additions and volume growth.

- Revenue growth target: 20% to 25% CAGR over the next few years, driven by new project wins and steady execution. - FY '27 revenue expected around Rs.1,200 crores, up from Rs.1,000 crores in the current year (15% to 18% growth). - Post commercialization of two Andhra waste-to-energy projects in FY '29, an additional Rs.90 to Rs.140 crores annual revenue expected initially, scaling up to Rs.130 to Rs.140 crores, over and above the existing Rs.1,000+ crores. - EBITDA margins targeted in the 22% to 23% range; core operating margins might face slight temporary pressure during project construction phases but expected to stabilize. - ROCE and ROIC anticipated to improve gradually over time as capex investments mature. - Focus on higher value contracts and technology-driven solutions to improve margin profile and earnings consistency.

- Two Andhra Pradesh waste-to-energy projects at Kadapa and Kurnool with total capex of Rs.600-650 crores; construction period planned for 24 months, revenue from FY '29 onwards. - Atkoli project and two BMC Collection & Transportation contracts also underway with associated capital expenditure. - Addition of 335 vehicles at new NMMC project; incremental deployments at PCMC and Nagpur sites. - Targeted debt/equity ratio up to 1x-1.2x over next 2 years to support capex. - Continued investment in technology, innovation, and operational excellence to consolidate industry position. - Focus on high-value contracts and circular economy solutions expected to improve margins. - Potential future waste-to-energy tenders in eastern India and Tamil Nadu post elections. - No fresh update on tire recycling projects; careful and selective bidding on new projects for profitability.

- The company’s gross debt as of December 2025 is approximately Rs.425 crores, with a net debt to equity of 0.4x. - Planned capital expansions at Atkoli and Andhra Pradesh projects will increase net debt to equity to around 1x to 1.2x in the next couple of years. - The balance sheet is considered strong and capable of managing this increased debt. - The blended interest cost is targeted to gradually come down below 9% from the current 9.1%-9.5% range over the next few years. - No explicit mention of new equity fundraising in the recent discussion. - The company is focused on measured growth and cautious project selection to maintain financial health.

- The company has secured a Rs.1,330 crore Collection & Transportation (C&T) order over a 7-year period through a joint venture, with Antony holding 51% ownership. - The entire Rs.1,330 crore revenue and expenses are consolidated in Antony's books; minority interest accounts for other partners' share of profits. - There are ongoing bids and tenders, including: - One live tender for a waste-to-energy (WTE) project in eastern India. - Several WTE tenders expected soon in Tamil Nadu post-state elections. - Tenders related to C&D segment expected to increase due to policy changes. - The company anticipates doubling the C&D segment's contribution, currently at 5%, in FY27. - Future projects focus on both processing and C&T, with careful project selection to ensure profitability. - The board aims to grow non-municipal business segments such as B2C "Click-to-clean," EPR market, and electricity board clients.