Apeejay Surrend. Q4 FY25 Earnings Analysis

- ASPHL expects sustained double-digit growth in revenue, targeting higher mid-teens growth (above 15%) in FY26 and beyond. - Flurys café and restaurant segment aims for mature stores to achieve annual revenues of Rs. 1 crore, with plans to grow from 100 to 200 outlets by FY27. - Over the next two years, the Flurys brand plans rapid expansion, especially in North India, supported by a new large central commissary. - ASPHL will add approximately 830 owned hotel keys over 5 years, including 200 rooms in Pune, 250 in Kolkata, 170 in Navi Mumbai, 150 in Jaipur, and 100 in Vizag. - Management contracts will add roughly 300 keys annually for the next 5 years, targeting growth across North India's tier-2 cities and existing markets. - Service apartment sales at Kolkata's EM Bypass project are expected to add Rs. 100 crore annually to cash flow for 3 years. - Overall, the company anticipates strong revenue growth driven by new properties, F&B expansion, and operational efficiencies.

- The company expects sustained double-digit growth in the quarters ahead, with FY26 likely to see higher mid-teens growth, potentially ahead of 15% (ARR and overall revenue growth). - Profit Before Tax (PBT) is projected in the range of Rs. 100 crore to Rs. 120 crore for the current year, benefiting from a reduction in interest costs. - Operational EBITDA growth was already 11% YoY in Q3 FY25 with steady margins at around 36%, expected to continue improving with capacity additions and efficiencies. - Normalized PAT showed 17.3% YoY growth in Q3 FY25, indicating strong profitability momentum. - Expansion of owned hotels (830 keys over next 5 years) and management contracts (adding roughly 300 keys annually) will drive revenue and earnings growth. - Flurys brand's rapid expansion (aiming for 200 stores by FY27) and increased maturity of stores will contribute positively to earnings and margins. - Cash flow improvements expected from apartment sales and new projects will support growth without increasing borrowing costs.

- Current FY25 Q4 CAPEX plan is approximately Rs. 30 crore. - FY26 CAPEX outlay expected between Rs. 150 crore to Rs. 170 crore. - Capex funded through internal accruals plus Rs. 100 crore cash inflow from EM Bypass apartment sales. - Major projects include: - 200-room hotel opening in Pune (FY27). - 100-room hotel in Vizag (FY27). - Kolkata EM Bypass project with 250 rooms (FY28). - Navi Mumbai expansion adding 170 rooms (total 250 keys). - Jaipur hotel with 150 keys (FY29). - Joint development with Ambuja Neotia Group for serviced apartments at EM Bypass, generating Rs. 100 crore cash flow annually for 3 years. - New large central commissary (20,000 sq ft) in Delhi NCR for Flurys to support rapid North India expansion. - Evaluating inorganic growth opportunities alongside organic expansion.

- No significant new borrowing costs are expected for the next year despite several projects lined up, as the company anticipates strong cash EBITDA generation. (Atul Khosla) - Project CAPEX for the next financial year is estimated at Rs. 150-170 crore, expected to be funded through internal accruals and Rs. 100 crore cash inflow from the EM Bypass project. (Atul Khosla) - The company currently holds Rs. 40 crore in mutual funds from surplus liquidity after project CAPEX payments, indicating strong liquidity and no immediate need for external fundraising. (Atul Khosla) - While inorganic opportunities are being evaluated, no explicit current plans for equity or debt fundraising have been mentioned; updates will be provided as opportunities materialize. (Vijay Dewan)

- The company currently has ongoing projects with about 830 owned keys under development across multiple locations: Pune (200 keys), Kolkata (250 keys), Vizag (100 keys), Navi Mumbai (170 keys), and Jaipur (150 keys). - For management contracts, ASPHL plans to add roughly 300 keys annually and aims to double its managed rooms from the current 1,050 keys over the next 5 years. - New store expansion for Flurys brand includes 14 stores opening shortly and a plan to add around 40 stores in the coming year. - Over the next two years, approximately 40 new stores will open in Delhi, plus another 40-50 stores across North India's tier-2 cities such as Chandigarh, Lucknow, Ludhiana, and Jaipur. - Total store count expected to cross 200 for Flurys by FY27, which will be a milestone for evaluating future growth options.