Aurora Innovation, Inc. Q2 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Aurora expects 2026 revenue of $14 million to $16 million, representing a 400% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. - Revenue will be back-end loaded, with over half projected in Q4 2026 as driverless operations scale following the new fleet launch. - By the end of 2026, Aurora anticipates operating more than 200 driverless trucks, translating to approximately $80 million in revenue on a run rate basis for their Transportation-as-a-Service business. - The company plans to commence its core Driver-as-a-Service model in 2027, supported by third-generation hardware kits with production starting in the second half of 2027. - Production capacity is initially set at 1,000 trucks per year through Roush, scalable further based on demand in 2027. - A 500-truck deal with Hirschbach over 2027-2028 is expected, contributing hundreds of millions of revenue and miles. - Capital expenditures are expected to peak in 2026 and decline significantly in 2027 as the business transitions to a Hardware-as-a-Service model with AUMOVIO.

- Aurora targets positive free cash flow by 2028, with sufficient liquidity to support this plan (page 9). - Revenue for 2026 is expected to reach $14-$16 million, a 400% increase year-over-year, with a run rate of ~$80 million by year-end from driverless trucks operations (page 4). - The company aims for gross profit breakeven at approximately $80 million in revenue (page 6 & 9). - Cost of goods sold currently runs near $2 per mile, aligning with $2 per mile revenue target; Driver-as-a-Service pricing projected around $0.85 per mile (page 9). - Operating losses remain significant in early 2026 ($244 million in Q1), but costs expected to reduce as capital expenditures decline post-2026 peak (page 8, 4). - Scale-up to 200 driverless trucks by end of 2026, with expansion capacity set to 1,000 trucks/year in 2027 and further scalability planned (pages 4, 12). - Transition to Driver-as-a-Service model and Hardware-as-a-Service by 2027 expected to improve margins and profitability (page 4, 12).

- Full-year 2026 capital expenditures are anticipated to be approximately $150 million, primarily for capacity planning. - 2026 is expected to represent peak capital spending, with significant decline in CapEx forecasted in 2027 as the company transitions to a Driver-as-a-Service model and Hardware-as-a-Service structure with AUMOVIO. - The ramp-up includes preparing Roush to scale production towards 20 trucks per week starting Q3 2026. - Aurora is investing strategically in second-generation commercial hardware kits launching in Q2 2026, and third-generation kits with AUMOVIO expected to begin production in the second half of 2027. - Construction of AUMOVIO’s expanded Texas facility (to produce third-generation hardware kits at scale) is on track to complete in Q1 2027. - Aurora continues to invest heavily in R&D to maintain a technology lead, anticipated to remain a steady expenditure category in coming quarters.

- In Q1 2026, Aurora generated net proceeds of $14 million from the issuance of Class A common stock through their at-the-market (ATM) program, used to fund tax liabilities from employee stock vesting. - As of the end of Q1 2026, Aurora holds nearly $1.3 billion in cash and short-term and long-term investments, indicating a strong liquidity position. - There is no indication on the call of new planned fundraising through debt or equity beyond the ATM activity mentioned. - The company continues to expect quarterly cash use of approximately $190 million to $220 million throughout 2026, supported by current liquidity. - CFO David Maday confirms sufficient liquidity to reach positive free cash flow by 2028, with no change to that plan or immediate new financing needs mentioned.

- Aurora currently has commitment and order slots for the entire 200 trucks planned to be in operation driverlessly by the end of 2026. - Today, Aurora owns about 25 trucks in various stages of upfit and preparation toward the 200-truck goal. - Hirschbach has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for 500 trucks to be delivered over 2027 and 2028, expected to translate to hundreds of millions of miles and revenue. - Aurora expects to finalize the Hirschbach deal and convert the MOU into a committed contract within 2026. - Production ramp-up to 20 trucks per week is expected from Roush starting Q3 2026, enabling scaling toward these order fulfillment goals. - Aurora is supply constrained currently but anticipates unlocking supply through partnerships like AUMOVIO in late 2027 for larger scale.