Cheniere Energy, Inc. Q2 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- 2026 production forecast improved by ~1 million tons; full year guidance raised to $7.25-$7.75 billion EBITDA and $4.75-$5.25 billion DCF (Page 2). - Additional volume growth from completion of Trains 6 and 7 at Stage 3; Train 6 LNG production imminent; 4Q likely highest volume quarter due to lower ambient temperatures (Page 5). - Mid-scale Trains 8 and 9 and debottlenecking project 37% complete, tracking ahead of schedule, supporting further volume increase (Page 2). - Phase 1 expansions at Sabine Pass (Train 7) and Corpus Christi budgeted, expected to add ~10% production platform growth each (Page 2). - Long-term growth supported by a platform expected to expand ~20% over next years, backed by over 35 long-term, creditworthy customers (Page 3). - Market conditions tighter in 2026-27 due to supply disruptions, providing favorable environment for volumes and pricing (Page 4).

- Full-year 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $7.25 billion - $7.75 billion (up $500 million midpoint). - Distributable cash flow (DCF) guidance raised to $4.75 billion - $5.25 billion (up $400 million midpoint). - Production forecast for 2026 increased by ~1 million tons to approximately 52 - 54 million tons. - Projected sustainable growth driven by completion and ramp-up of Stage 3 Trains 6 and 7, and mid-scale Trains 8 and 9. - Limited open volume exposure for 2026; each $1 change in market margins impacts EBITDA by less than $50 million. - Long-term growth supported by Phase 1 expansions at Sabine Pass (Train 7) and Corpus Christi, expected to add ~10% production each. - Continued capital allocation balance with accretive growth, buybacks, dividends, and balance sheet management. - Earnings impacted in short term by unrealized noncash derivative losses, but adjusted net income positive (~$1 billion Q1 2026), aligned with EBITDA and DCF.

- Budgeting for limited notices to proceed (LNTPs) in 2026 for Sabine Pass expansion, Train 7, with FID expected early next year. - Corpus Christi expansion (CCL expansion project) is progressing well, with FERC approval expected in the first half of 2027. - Mid-scale Trains 8 and 9 and debottlenecking project at Corpus Christi approximately 37% complete, tracking ahead of schedule. - Approximately $1 billion of growth CapEx deployed in Q1 2026 funded with equity and debt. - Capital allocation includes balance sheet management and shareholder returns alongside growth investments. - Focus on accretive brownfield growth opportunities at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. - Planning for growth to increase Cheniere’s production platform approximately 10% through Phase 1 expansions at Sabine and Corpus. - Continuing development of expansion projects with disciplined capital allocation and rigorous SPA underwriting.

- In Q1, Cheniere issued $1 billion of 2036 notes and $750 million of 2056 notes at CEI, marking their inaugural 30-year issuance and extending maturity into the latter half of the century. - Part of these proceeds was used to prepay $550 million drawn on the Corpus Christi term loan and cancel $600 million of unused commitments. - They maintain substantial liquidity with approximately $1.8 billion in consolidated cash and billions in undrawn revolvers and term loan capacity. - Growth CapEx of approximately $1 billion was funded via approximately $300 million equity and $700 million debt during the quarter. - The company continues to allocate capital towards accretive growth, shareholder returns (buybacks/dividends), and balance sheet management. - Flexing variable components of the CQP distribution to retain cash for potential limited notices to proceed to Bechtel ahead of expected FID early next year. - No explicit mention of raising new equity or debt beyond these current actions; emphasis is on funding growth comfortably within cash flow forecasts and financial flexibility.

- Cheniere currently holds approximately 10 million tons of SPAs (Sale and Purchase Agreements) that have not yet been used to underpin or underwrite a Final Investment Decision (FID) project. - This capacity is more than sufficient to cover the upcoming Sabine Pass 7 project and debottlenecking activities. - Corpus Christi expansion is tracking well, with permits expected mid-to-late next year; FID for Sabine 7 is anticipated early next year. - The company has already sold over 1 million tons of open capacity for 2027, capitalizing on rising margins. - Highest number of vessels ever in Cheniere’s portfolio, paid for by long-term DES and IPM contracts, facilitating flexibility and market opportunities. - Additional cargo sourcing from third parties (over 30 TBtu) in the past quarter has optimized asset utilization. - No further optimization gains are baked into the current $7.5 billion EBITDA guidance.