Duke Energy Corporation Q2 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Duke Energy is confident in achieving 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth through 2030, with accelerated growth expected starting in 2028 driven by economic development projects under electric service agreements (ESAs). - They have secured approximately 7.6 gigawatts of ESAs with data center customers, including 2.7 gigawatts signed recently, nearly two-thirds of which are under construction, indicating strong load growth. - The signed load contracts and incremental projects are expected to begin energy delivery by late 2027 and ramp up through the early to mid-2030s, supporting durable long-term growth. - Their economic development and infrastructure investments position them well to capitalize on robust demand in their service territories, including growth in data centers and advanced manufacturing. - The integrated approach in generation and transmission planning supports rapid project online dates, aiming to convert prospects into firm, revenue-generating projects within the next 12 months.

- Duke Energy projects 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth through 2030. - The company is confident in earning in the top half of this EPS growth range beginning in 2028, supported by accelerating economic development projects. - First quarter 2026 adjusted EPS was $1.93, up from $1.76 the prior year, showing early momentum. - Expected to achieve 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80. - Growth driven by large capital investments, infrastructure upgrades, and signed large load contracts (7.6 GW ESAs, with an additional 2.7 GW signed recently). - Robust pipeline of large load customers, with 15.4 GW in late-stage high-confidence pipeline expected to convert to projects within 12 months. - Strategic financial actions (tax credit monetization, utility combinations) projected to provide customer benefits and support earnings durability.

- Duke Energy has a $103 billion capital plan to fund strategic investments benefiting customers. - Adding 14 gigawatts of generation over the next 5 years, including 5 gigawatts of gas generation under construction and 2.5 gigawatts in development. - Construction started on new gas generation facilities in the Carolinas with signed EPC contracts. - Approved 1.4 gigawatt combined cycle plant in South Carolina; construction to begin in 2027. - Implemented CWIP rider in Indiana for Cayuga combined cycle plant to manage costs and maintain financial strength. - Secured long lead-time equipment and workforce agreements to reduce risks. - Ongoing investments to extend life of nuclear fleet, including NRC-approved license renewal for Robinson Nuclear Plant. - Infrastructure investments to support increasing load from data centers and large customers with 7.6 gigawatts of executed electric service agreements, nearly two-thirds under construction.

- In March 2026, Duke Energy issued $1.5 billion of convertible senior notes at a 3% coupon, providing interest savings by paying down higher-cost debt. - They also priced $300 million of equity under their ATM (at-the-market) program, settled in December 2027, aligned with the timing of future equity needs. - The company benefits from strong market conditions to maintain a balanced funding approach. - Proceeds from strategic transactions exceeded $5 billion, strengthening their credit profile and funding their $103 billion capital plan efficiently. - They aim to maintain financial strength with targets of 14.5% funds from operations (FFO) to debt in 2026 and 15% over the long term, providing a cushion against downgrade thresholds. Overall, Duke Energy is actively managing debt and equity funding with a focus on cost efficiency and financial flexibility to support growth.

- Total executed Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) with data center customers: approximately 7.6 gigawatts. - Incremental 2.7 gigawatts of ESAs signed since Q4 2025. - Nearly two-thirds (~66%) of the 7.6 GW are already under construction. - Late-stage high-confidence pipeline totals 15.4 gigawatts, inclusive of signed ESAs. - The overall pipeline is much larger, but focus is on late-developed stage projects. - Expect to convert additional prospects to ESAs over the next 12 months. - Construction underway on the first 5 gigawatts of new data centers. - Plans to accelerate construction and bring new projects online rapidly after ESAs are signed.