Gulshan Polyols Ltd Q1 FY27 Earnings Analysis

- For FY27, Gulshan Polyols targets revenue of INR 2,600 to INR 2,800 crores, with INR 1,800 to 1,900 crores expected from the ethanol segment, INR 800 crores from grain processing, and INR 100 crores from mineral processing. - Ethanol segment volumes are expected to increase from the current 18 crore liters order book to at least 22 crore liters within FY26, aligned with government’s rising blending mandates up to E30 and beyond. - Capacity utilization in ethanol is currently around 80%, with unutilized capacity available up to 26 crore liters, allowing volume growth with increased mandates. - From FY28, the company plans fresh capex focused on specialty chemicals and import-substitutes, with a mega project (~INR 500 crores capex) aiming to generate INR 1,000–1,500 crores revenue, driving longer-term growth beyond INR 5,000 crore revenue. - Incremental EBITDA growth over the next 2-3 years is expected primarily from the ethanol segment, with gradual margin improvement in grain processing. - Debt reduction plans also support growth with expected debt-free status by FY29 (excluding Assam plant loan).

- Ethanol segment expected to sustain strong EBITDA margins over next 2-3 years, driven by continued government support and feedstock availability. - Grain processing division likely to improve, targeting ~5% EBITDA margin (~INR 40 crores) in FY27 on INR 800 crores revenue with margins recovering from previous lows. - Overall revenue target for FY27 is INR 2,600 to INR 2,800 crores; ethanol ~INR 1,800-1,900 crores, grain processing ~INR 800 crores, mineral segment ~INR 100 crores. - EBITDA margins expected around 10-12% in FY27; PAT margins roughly 5-6%. - New mega capex of ~INR 500 crores planned starting FY28, aiming to boost revenue by INR 1,000-1,500 crores, with targeted ROCE ~22%. - Debt expected to be mostly cleared by FY29 except long-term Assam plant loans extending till FY32. - Export business is stable, with limited exposure to Chinese price volatility. - Improving cost structure, operational leverage, and working capital efficiency to support consistent, predictable performance.

- Gulshan Polyols is planning a mega capex project of about INR 500 crores starting FY28, spread over FY28 and FY29. - This capex will focus on specialty chemicals, primarily import-substitute products not currently produced in India. - The project will be set up on 100 acres of land in Narsinghpur, Madhya Pradesh. - The plan includes some capacity enhancement for existing products like sorbitol and fructose. - The company aims to generate INR 1,000 to INR 1,500 crores in revenue from this investment. - Funding will be through a mix of debt and equity; fundraising options are being evaluated. - IRR expectations are around 15% EBITDA margin for new products under evaluation. - The capex aligns with the company's vision to grow revenue to around INR 5,000 crores in the next 4 years.

- The company is planning a mega capex project of about INR 500 crores, starting FY28 and spreading over FY28 and FY29. - Funding for this capex will be a combination of debt and equity. - The company is currently evaluating all available options, including possible fundraising. - Final details and Board approval for the funding mix are yet to be finalized.

- Current ethanol segment order book is about 18 crore liters for ESY ’25-’26 (November to October), translating to approximately INR 1,250 crores in revenue. - The company expects to increase this allocation to at least 22 crore liters within the financial year through upcoming tenders in June (C2 and C3 cycles). - Previous year’s order book was at 21 crore liters; current allocation is lower but expected to improve. - About 50% of the 18 crore liters allocation was fulfilled till March; around 9 crore liters volume is expected over the next two quarters. - Additional orders expected as the government is increasing ethanol blending mandates and releasing further tenders. - Capacity allows production up to 26 crore liters per annum, indicating room to ramp up production as order book grows.