HEG Ltd Q3 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Demand for graphite electrodes is expected to grow significantly due to new electric arc furnace (EAF) steel capacities. - Approximately 20 million tons of new EAF capacities were added in 2024-25, with another 60 million tons expected between 2026-28, and 30 million tons by 2030. - This expansion is projected to increase worldwide electrode demand by about 200,000 tons by 2030 (excluding China). - HEG is adding 15,000 tons of additional electrode capacity, expected to come online by early 2028 to meet incremental demand. - The company anticipates steady volume growth, with current plant capacity at 100,000 tons potentially utilized up to 94-95% in practical conditions. - Volumes have grown approximately 18-20%, with HEG gaining market share across multiple geographies. - Revenue and profitability are expected to improve as industry demand recovers and capacity stabilizes.

- HEG Limited expects significant earnings growth driven by industry improvement and increased electrode demand (Page 6). - Expansion projects like the additional 15,000 tons capacity, scheduled to come online by early 2028, will position HEG to capture incremental electrode demand globally (Pages 5, 13). - The graphite electrode demand is forecasted to increase by approximately 200,000 tons by 2030, excluding China, supporting long-term growth (Page 5). - Operating leverage benefits at higher production levels are enhancing margins; new capacity additions help reduce cost per ton (Pages 16, 21). - Power cost advantage due to lower tariff agreements and ongoing efficiency drives improve profitability (Page 21). - Stable pricing expectations for graphite electrodes for upcoming quarters support revenue visibility (Pages 16, 8). - No major debt is anticipated post-demerger, maintaining a strong balance sheet for growth (Page 15).

- HEG Limited is executing projects in its Greentech business over the next two to four quarters, with associated debt requirements to be mobilized once project PPAs are signed (Page 15). - Post-demerger (expected by Q1 FY27), the Greentech business will initially have negligible debt, with debt rising as projects like BESS tenders in Gujarat and Maharashtra progress (Page 15). - No debt has been taken yet for the graphite anode business; significant equity contributions are currently utilized, with further funds deployment planned post-implementation of the scheme (Page 15). - Construction of a recently announced graphite electrode expansion by an additional 15,000 tons is progressing on schedule and expected to be completed by early 2028, aiming to meet incremental electrode demand globally (Page 5).

- Post the demerger (expected by Q1 FY27), the Greentech business will have negligible debt initially. - Debt will start arising as projects move into full execution mode, such as BESS tenders won in Gujarat and Maharashtra. - No debt has been taken yet for the anode business; current financing is through significant equity contribution from the company. - Future money deployment and debt raising will happen once the demerger scheme is implemented and projects commence. - There is no mention of any immediate equity fundraising in the provided text.

- On Page 8, Ravi Jhunjhunwala indicated that at least 50%-60% of the volume expected to be sold in the next year has already been settled through negotiated orders, especially for the US market. - Pricing for these orders is expected to be more or less similar to recent quarters. - No explicit mention of total order book size or pending orders in absolute terms was given in the transcript. - The company is confident about volume growth and capacity utilization with ongoing expansions targeting early 2028. - HEG benefits from long-term contracts and efforts to lock in raw material (needle coke) costs to mitigate margin risks.