Inox Green Energy Services Ltd Q1 FY27 Earnings Analysis

- FY27 revenue guidance targets a 75% growth over FY26, aiming for approx. INR7,500 crores (up from INR4,500 crores in FY26). - The company is "sold out" for the next 2.5 years with a 3.1 GW order book backed by strong visibility from Inox Green. - Inox Green expects consolidated EBITDA north of INR600 crores in FY27, driven by organic growth and acquisitions. - Shift in business model: pivot from 100% turnkey EPC projects to 75%-80% equipment supply to improve cash flow and reduce working capital blockage. - Inox Green poised for rapid growth benefiting from over 3 GW annual capacity additions by group company Inox Clean. - Expected multifold increase in consolidated EBITDA and PAT in FY27 due to acquisition of 6.5 GW operational wind assets. - Focus on expanding high-margin, value-added services (e.g., cranes, transformers, power electronics) to support revenue growth.

- FY27 revenue guidance targets a 75% growth over FY26, aiming for around INR7,500 crores. - FY27 EBITDA guidance is set to be upwards of INR600 crores. - EBITDA margin expected to be around 20% or higher. - PAT projections align with strong growth, with Inox Green showing a 244% increase in PBT and 340% increase in PAT YoY in FY26 Q4. - Inox Green’s consolidation of acquisitions expected to significantly boost FY27 EBITDA and PAT. - Transition toward equipment supply (75%-80% of order book) is aimed at improving free cash flow and reducing working capital blockage, supporting profitability. - Enhanced focus on high-margin value-added services (e.g., O&M, power transformers, digital initiatives) to improve margins further. - 45%-50% EBITDA margins expected consistently excluding acquisition income. - Company maintains a conservative stance on guidance despite macro uncertainties.

- Inox Green has made nearly 9-10 acquisitions in recent months, including two of the top four bankrupt wind OEMs in India. - The company aims to integrate these acquisitions fully before deploying further capital. - While there are limited acquisition opportunities in India's wind sector due to consolidation, a couple of gigawatt (GW) projects are lined up, expected to use only 10-20% of free cash flow. - Management is considering how to best utilize free cash flow after integration. - The company is pivoting from turnkey EPC projects to equipment supply (now 75-80% of order book), focusing on higher-margin, capital-light businesses to generate strong free cash flows without working capital blockage. - Expansion into power electronics (transformers, inverters, ECS systems) is planned to enhance value-added services. - No specific buyback plans at present, but capital deployment will be in shareholders' best interest.

- Inox Green has raised close to $750 million at a valuation of a couple of billion dollars, indicating significant past equity fundraising. - No explicit mention of planned new fundraising through debt or equity in the current or near future was made in the available discussion. - The focus appears to be on executing existing projects, consolidations, and generating strong operating cash flows (e.g., expected INR600 crores EBITDA for FY27 converting largely into operating cash flow). - Board will consider dividend policy post consolidation, suggesting no imminent equity dilution. - The company seems to be leveraging internal cash flow and strategic acquisitions rather than announcing fresh fundraising plans at this stage.

- Current order book stands at approximately 3.1 GW, with about 500 MW from group company Inox Clean Energy unexecuted, representing around 16% of the total. - Over the past year, 600 MW of new orders were added from marquee customers like Aditya Birla, Gentari / Amplus, Jakson Green, First Energy, and Leap Green. - The order mix has shifted from 100% turnkey 24 months ago to currently about 50:50 turnkey and equipment supply, with plans to increase equipment supply to 75-80%. - Strong execution visibility for more than 24 months. - The company expects large recurring order inflows from Inox Clean Energy, which plans to add over 3 GW capacity annually, with 20-30% wind, serving as about one-third of annual execution targets. - Pending acquisitions of wind assets (~4.5 GW and 2 GW) are awaiting NCLT clearances but expected to be integrated into Inox Green over FY27. - Overall, the company states it is effectively “sold out” for the next 2.5 years based on its current platform and order book.