Marriott International, Inc. Q2 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Expect trajectory for conversion volume to grow aggressively over the next several years due to compelling conversion platforms across all quality tiers. (Page 12) - Full year global RevPAR growth raised to 2%-3%, with continued strength in leisure (+6% globally, +5% U.S./Canada) and group segments (+5%). (Page 2) - Business transient RevPAR shows modest growth (+1% globally, +2% U.S./Canada), with ongoing improvement in U.S. leisure and select service segments. (Page 10) - Global signings up 9% YoY with a strong pipeline (nearly 618,000 rooms) and 43% under construction, supporting net rooms growth of 4.5%-5% annually. (Page 2 and 11) - Technology and AI investments expected to enhance owner returns, drive direct bookings, and strengthen lower-cost direct booking channels, supporting revenue growth. (Pages 2 and 9) - Positive impact anticipated from World Cup (30-35 bps RevPAR uplift) and mid-scale brand ramp-up supporting growth. (Pages 7 and 8)

- Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 9% to 11%, reaching approximately $5.88 billion to $5.97 billion. - Adjusted diluted EPS for 2026 is projected to grow 14% to 16%, reaching $11.38 to $11.63. - Global RevPAR growth for 2026 is guided at 2% to 3%, with stronger performance expected in U.S. and Canada and low single-digit growth in Greater China. - Second quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 8% to 10%. - Gross fee revenues for 2026 are raised to $5.93 billion to $5.99 billion, a 9% to 10% increase year-over-year. - Investment spending for 2026 is forecasted at $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion, primarily driven by investments in the Lefay luxury wellness platform. - Long-term net rooms growth continues to be strong at 4.5% to 5% annually, supported by conversions and new builds.

- Investment spend ticked up this year, mainly due to investment in Lefay, Marriott’s new luxury wellness platform. - Continued spend in digital tech transformation, including ongoing technology refresh and corporate systems. - Around 35%-40% of contract-related spending is expected in the current year, with 30%-35% going to digital transformation efforts. - Technology investments include rolling out AI-powered tools: conversational search on marriott.com, sales tools, marketing assistance, and operational efficiencies. - AI is expected to bring cost benefits for owners and franchisees and improve efficiency in regional and headquarters functions like legal and finance. - Capital allocation prioritizes growth and investment-grade rating, with excess capital returned via share repurchases and dividends. - Looking ahead to 2027 and beyond, investment levels are expected to remain consistent with current categories. - Over $4.4 billion planned for shareholder returns in 2026.

- The transcript does not mention any current or planned new fundraising through debt or equity. - The company emphasizes a capital allocation philosophy focused on maintaining an investment-grade rating. - Excess capital is returned to shareholders via share repurchases and modest cash dividends. - No guidance or plans for new fundraising activities such as debt issuance or equity raises are provided. - Investment spending is expected to be around $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion in 2026, primarily invested in growth areas like Lefay, with no indication this will require new fundraising.

- Global pipeline rooms at the end of the quarter: Nearly 618,000 rooms, up over 5% year-over-year to a new record. - 43% of pipeline rooms are under construction, including rooms pending conversion. - Conversions, including multiunit deals, account for over 35% of signings and over 40% of openings in the quarter. - Net rooms growth guidance: Between 4.5% and 5% for the full year, including typical 1% to 1.5% room deletions. - Middle East pipeline: About 7% of rooms pipeline is from this region, with openings generally proceeding as planned despite current challenges. - Recent multiunit deals include expansion with Sun Group in Vietnam (10 hotels across 8 brands) and Series by Marriott brand projects in Europe (6 in Italy, 5 in the UK).