Moderna, Inc. Q2 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Moderna expects up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, driven by strategic partnerships and continued growth of mNEXSPIKE. - International and U.S. markets are anticipated to have a roughly 50-50 revenue split. - New product approvals in the EU for the flu plus COVID combo vaccine and RSV vaccine are expected to contribute to revenue growth starting in 2027. - The flu vaccine mRNA-1010 has a PDUFA date set for August 5, 2026, aiming to support future sales. - Commercial launch of the COVID-flu combination vaccine targeted for 2027 with significant growth expected in 2028. - The respiratory vaccines market in Europe is valued around $1.8 to $2 billion annually, and Moderna aims to capture a large share. - Continued pipeline advancement including oncology and rare diseases is expected to drive long-term growth.

- Moderna expects total revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026, driven by international strategic partnerships and continued growth of mNEXSPIKE. - Revenue guidance assumes no contribution from flu vaccine or certain other pipeline products in 2026. - Operating expenses (excluding litigation charge) projected at $4.9 billion GAAP, with cash costs around $4.2 billion. - Net loss includes a one-time $0.9 billion litigation charge; excluding this, net loss improved by over 50% versus prior year. - The company anticipates a successful commercial launch of new vaccines (flu plus COVID combo) in Europe starting 2027, driving growth in 2027 and 2028. - No explicit guidance on EPS provided, but improved revenue and reduced adjusted cash costs indicate operational leveraging. - Pipeline advances and new product approvals (e.g., norovirus, Intismeran, propionic acidemia) expected to contribute to longer-term profitability.

- Moderna projects capital expenditures (capex) between $0.2 billion and $0.3 billion for 2026. - The company continues to invest in its pipeline while maintaining financial discipline. - Strategic investments include expanding the mRNA platform to new drug modalities and families of medicines. - They are investing in AI and robotics to accelerate discovery of new technologies and expand mRNA use. - The company is focused on geographic expansion and advancement of product pipeline, including new vaccine launches. - No material impacts are expected from geopolitical conflicts on the 2026 financial outlook. - Moderna maintains a strong balance sheet with $7.5 billion in cash and investments at Q1 2026 end.

- Moderna does not anticipate any current or immediate new fundraising through debt or equity. - The company ended Q1 2026 with $7.5 billion in cash and investments. - Cash guidance for 2026 does not assume any additional drawdown from their remaining $0.9 billion undrawn credit facility. - Capital expenditures are projected between $0.2 billion and $0.3 billion for 2026. - There is no indication of planned equity raises or debt issuance beyond existing credit facilities mentioned.

- The UK spring campaign delivery occurred in Q1 2026; a second campaign (fall booster) is planned for Q3/Q4 2026, implying a potential double order year in the UK. - Germany's campaigns for respiratory vaccines (flu, COVID, RSV) are also underway with continued deliveries anticipated. - France is actively engaged in market access and reimbursement processes post-approval of the COVID-flu combination vaccine. - Across major European markets, securing market access and pricing discussions are ongoing throughout H2 2026. - The respiratory vaccine market in Europe is estimated at about $2 billion, presenting a large opportunity. - Sales guidance includes international revenues, with Q2 expected between $50 million-$100 million split evenly between US and international. - Moderna expects a successful product launch in 2027, with significant revenue uplift in 2028 as pricing and access processes complete.