Modine Manufacturing Company Q1 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Fiscal ’26 revenue is expected to grow 20% to 25%, with Climate Solutions sales rising 40% to 45%, led by data centers growing over 70%. (Page 4) - Data center products anticipated to reach about $1.6 billion annualized run-rate by Q4 FY26, with capacity in place by end of FY27, though not necessarily at full utilization. (Pages 8-10) - Data center segment expected to achieve 50% to 70% CAGR through FY27-28, with capacity expansions targeting $3 billion revenue by FY28. (Pages 7-10) - HVAC segment expected to grow high single digits organically, with growth supported by private, fragmented HVAC businesses. (Page 12) - Continued ramp-up of chiller lines to 20 by FY28 to support data center growth. (Page 10) - Longer-term growth is driven primarily by expanding relationships with existing hyperscaler customers and some new customer acquisitions. (Pages 6-7)

- Fiscal ’26 adjusted EBITDA outlook raised to $455-$475 million, reflecting strong Q3 performance and expected Q4 improvement. - Climate Solutions segment margins expected to improve sequentially, targeting 20%-23% adjusted EBITDA margin next year. - Performance Technologies (PT) anticipated to have a temporary Q4 margin dip but rebound in Q1 to 14%+ range. - Data center sales expected to grow 50%-70% annually over the next 2 years, supporting earnings growth. - Free cash flow expected to rebound next fiscal year aligning with long-term goals. - Adjusted EPS increased 29% in Q3 to $1.19 (excluding noncash pension loss); expected to continue improving with operational leverage and capacity ramp. - Capacity expansions and product innovation underpin confidence in meeting growth and margin targets. Overall, Modine expects continued earnings growth driven by capacity utilization, improved margins, and strategic investments in Climate Solutions.

- The company is undertaking the largest capacity expansion in its history, focused on data center products and capacity growth. - Approximately $40 million of capital spending occurred in Q3, with an additional $40 million to $50 million expected in Q4. - About $40 million of capital investment will carry over into the next fiscal year. - Total capital spending of around $100 million remains, supporting future sales growth not yet reflected in production sales. - Full fiscal year CapEx is expected to be in the range of $150 million to $180 million, with some data center investments carrying over into the next fiscal year. - The capital investments aim to support scaling production capacity, enable revenue growth, and meet increasing demand from hyperscaler customers. - Working capital investment is elevated temporarily due to inventory buildup ahead of the ramp but expected to normalize alongside sales growth.

- The company’s net debt increased by $238 million compared to the prior fiscal year due to 3 acquisitions and incremental data center investments. - Leverage ratio is currently at 1.2, indicating a strong balance sheet. - No explicit mention of plans for new fundraising through debt or equity in the near term. - Capital expenditures are planned in the range of $150 million to $180 million for the full fiscal year, with some carryover into the next fiscal year. - The company anticipates generating positive free cash flow in Q4 and expects free cash flow to rebound next year, aligning with long-term goals. - Overall, the company appears focused on managing current investments and improving cash flow without signaling immediate new fundraising through debt or equity.

- Record order intake reported in the data center segment, roughly split 50-50 between chillers and other products in the full data center solutions. - Majority of growth driven by expanding relationships with existing customers, especially strong long-term relationships with hyperscalers. - Active discussions and pilot builds underway with several hyperscalers who have not previously purchased chillers, indicating pipeline growth. - Order funnel visibility has expanded significantly over time—from 8-12 months visibility three years ago to now looking out as far as five years. - The top of the order funnel is growing, with purchase probabilities improving from 40-50% to 80-90%. - Continued cultivation of a pipeline in the HVAC space, focusing on fragmented businesses with revenues between $50 million to $100 million for potential future M&A activity. - Ongoing "all hands on deck" focus on Gentherm project while maintaining background work on additional HVAC opportunities.