Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd Q4 FY25 Earnings Analysis

- Overall volume growth for current fiscal year expected close to 8-9%, below earlier guidance of 10-15%. (Page 12) - Confident of double-digit volume growth next year driven by pharma, paints, and Qpack segments. (Pages 10-11, 14) - Paint segment volume growth anticipated around 10-15%, with ABG volumes projected to grow 40-50%. (Pages 10, 16) - Pharma segment targeted to grow from ~INR8 crores this year to INR30-35 crores next year, potentially doubling to INR60-65 crores by FY '27. (Pages 10, 18) - Thin wall (high-margin) packs expected to register ~15% volume growth next year. (Page 14) - Food and FMCG segment targeting double-digit growth, supported by new plant at Panipat and new products like Horlicks and Surf Excel. (Pages 10-11) - EBITDA per kg expected to cross INR38 by Q4 and target INR40 per kg next financial year, driven by high-margin pharma contributions. (Page 7)

- Company expects double-digit volume growth next year, aiming for 10-15%, driven by improved pharma and ABG segment performance. - Pharma segment projected to grow significantly, with revenue potentially reaching INR30-40 crores next year and doubling to INR60-65 crores by FY '27. - EBITDA per kg expected to cross INR38 in Q4 FY25 and potentially INR40 in FY26 due to increased high-margin pharma sales. - Other segments like food, FMCG, and Qpack are also expected to see double-digit growth, offsetting slower growth in paints and lubes. - Margins likely to improve as pharma contribution rises, which offers higher realizations (INR300-350/kg vs. current average INR206/kg). - Increased capacity utilization and new product commercialization in pharma should enhance profitability and overall earnings. - Operating earnings and profits expected to benefit from high-value pharma business and expanding IML adoption in paints.

- Pharma segment capex planned for FY '25-'26 is INR 25-40 crores, mainly for additional machines and molds to double capacity; land and building are already in place. - Potential expansion in Sultanpur premises may require an additional INR 8-10 crores for new buildings. - Other plants (Cheyyar, Panipat, Mahad) will see mostly balancing equipment investments, with Mahad possibly requiring INR 10-15 crores. - Total capex for next financial year expected to reduce to around INR 60-65 crores from INR 120-130 crores over the last 3 years. - No significant greenfield projects planned; focus is on pharma capacity build-up and incremental investments in existing plants to support growth. - Paint industry capex readiness is in place with new machinery and molds arriving, especially for anticipated volume growth from Aditya Birla Group.

- The company is planning additional investments in the pharma segment for FY '26, estimated between INR 25 crores to INR 40 crores. - These investments primarily cover additional machines and molds; land and building are already in place. - There may also be further expansion in Sultanpur premises with potential additional capex of INR 8 crores to INR 10 crores, but decisions are not finalized. - Other plants (Cheyyar, Panipat, Mahad) will only see balancing equipment investments, with Mahad seeing around INR 10-15 crores capex. - Next financial year’s total capex is expected to be around INR 60-65 crores, significantly lower than INR 120 crores+ spent in previous years. - There is no explicit mention of any planned new fundraising through debt or equity in the current or upcoming period shared in the transcript.

- No specific details on the current or expected order book or pending orders are mentioned explicitly in the transcript. - However, growth expectations are linked to key customers like Asian Paints and Aditya Birla Group (ABG), with ABG projecting 40-50% volume growth next year, and Mold-Tek being ready with machinery and molds for this. - The company is optimistic about increasing volumes from pharma, food, FMCG, and thin packs due to new product launches like Surf Excel and Horlicks. - Asian Paints volumes have declined recently, but the company expects stabilization or recovery, especially with increased adoption of In-Mold Labeling (IML) products. - Pharma segment is scaling up, with commercial supplies increasing and capacity utilization nearing 40-45%. - The newly added printing capacity (40% increase) will help meet demand and reduce supply disruptions. - Overall, expected growth is in double digits for the next financial year driven by ABG and pharma growth.