Olectra Greentec Q4 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Olectra Greentech expects electric vehicle (EV) industry growth at a CAGR of over 30%, aiming to outperform this market growth. - For FY26, the company targets delivery of around 1,500 to 2,000 buses, with the ambition to maintain No.1 market position. - Capacity is currently 2,500 vehicles per shift per year, expandable to 5,000 vehicles with double shifts; full utilization expected as market absorbs more volume in FY27. - Long term margin expectation is 10-12%, slightly lower than current 14% due to volume growth and new product segments. - New product development CAPEX of Rs.300–350 crores planned over next two years to expand into 9-meter, 12-meter buses, and trucks for future growth. - Insulators business targeting Rs.300 crores revenue with 10-15% year-on-year growth. - Overall, revenue growth around 23-29% year-on-year achieved recently, with sustained profitability and operating margin stability expected.

- For FY 2025-26, Olectra remains cautiously optimistic, expecting healthy growth in consolidated revenue and profitability driven by execution discipline, improving scale, and sustained demand across key segments (Page 19). - Margins are likely to remain broadly stable, factoring in product mix dynamics and operating leverage from higher volumes (Page 19). - EBITDA margins are expected to stabilize around 10-12% in the long term; currently maintaining about 14% (Pages 18 and 16). - The insulators business aims for 15-20% year-on-year growth with sustained healthy EBITDA margins around 25-30% (Pages 6 and 16). - Delivery of electric buses is projected between 1,500 to 2,000 units for FY26, supporting revenue growth (Pages 16 and 19). - Positive sequential performance and revenues anticipated in Q4, supported by healthy demand momentum in the EV segment (Page 19). - Earnings Per Share (EPS) was Rs.5.65 in Q3 FY26, broadly flat YoY, with expectations for improvements aligned with operational growth (Page 4).

- Olectra Greentech is planning CAPEX of Rs.300 to 350 crores over the next two years focused on new product development, including new platforms (12-meter, 9-meter buses) and entry into the truck segment (Page 10, 17). - The company has completed Phase-I capacity expansion (5,000 units per annum) and will only proceed with further capacity investments upon achieving full market absorption at this level (Page 13). - Capitalization of new product development investments will be done year-on-year over two years (Page 17). - Olectra emphasizes optimization of investments and will scale CAPEX based on market demand rather than upfront full capacity monetization (Page 13). - Current depreciation run rate is Rs.9.2 crores quarterly and expected to grow 10% with capitalization of new assets (Page 14).

- Olectra Greentech has availed term loans, resulting in finance costs of around Rs.15-20 crores per quarter. - Interest costs from these loans are now charged to the P&L post-capitalization. - The average interest rate on term loans is approximately 9%+. - Management is working on optimizing financial mechanisms to reduce interest costs. - There is an ongoing CAPEX plan of Rs.300-350 crores over the next two years for new product development. - Capitalization of this CAPEX will occur year-on-year over two years. - No explicit mention of new fundraising through equity or further debt beyond existing term loans was stated in the disclosed period.

- Current pending order book stands at approximately 9,000 vehicles. (B. Sharat Chandra, Page 19) - Delivered over 3,600 vehicles so far in the current period. (Page 19) - Additional order of 1,785 buses where Olectra has become L1, expected to convert into official orders in about three months. (Page 8) - Insulators business has an order book of around Rs.300 crores. (Page 7) - Market absorption and depot readiness are key factors influencing delivery timelines; company aims to deliver between 1,500 to 2,000 buses in the current fiscal year. (Page 16, Page 5) - Olectra is participating in upcoming tenders, including a CSL tender of 3,000+ buses covering multiple cities. (Page 12)