Ryanair Holdings plc Q1 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Traffic guidance for the full year has been raised from 207 million to 208 million passengers, indicating growth (Page 2). - Capacity will grow about 4% next summer with passenger numbers increasing from 208 million to 216 million in the next year (Page 4). - Central and Eastern Europe capacity expected to grow by 15% this summer, with markets like Poland, Albania, and Slovakia growing by double digits (Page 13). - Some regions will see churn and seat capacity adjustments, with growth focused on areas offering lower access costs (Pages 12-13). - Modest fare increases in the low single digits are expected, driven by capacity constraints and cost management (Page 4). - Strong fourth-quarter bookings and modest fare increases projected; full-year fare growth guidance raised from plus 7% to 8%-9% (Pages 10, 12). - Outlook includes cautious optimism with revenue growth contingent on geopolitical stability and market factors (Page 10).

- Full year profit after tax pre-exceptional expected to be between EUR 2.13 billion to EUR 2.23 billion for FY26, up from EUR 1.6 billion last year. - Full year fares guidance raised to plus 8% to 9% growth for FY26, improved from prior 7%. - Q3 profit after tax of EUR 115 million; underlying business performing strongly. - Traffic expected to grow from 208 million to 216 million passengers next year (FY27). - Modest unit cost inflation expected for FY26 due to fuel hedging and cost control. - Strong cash flow continues with expectations of EUR 3.5 to 4 billion in cash by FY27, enabling continued investment and shareholder returns. - Operating costs to benefit from fuel savings due to hedging at $67/barrel for FY27, saving around $500 million. - Positive delivery progression for new aircraft (MAX 10), supporting fleet growth and operations into 2027. - Overall outlook is cautiously optimistic but exposed to geopolitical risks and regulatory factors.

- Ryanair plans to invest in 300 Boeing MAX 10 aircraft as part of its fleet renewal. - They are setting up two in-house engine maintenance shops to reduce dependence on third-party providers and cut engine maintenance costs. - Ryanair has purchased 30 spare engines opportunistically, enhancing its spare parts inventory amid constrained supplier markets. - The company may extend leases on some Airbus A320s or replace aging fleet with new MAX 10s or older Boeing NGs due to limited Airbus availability and high pricing. - Capital allocation includes maintaining a strong balance sheet with cash reserves targeted between EUR 3.5 billion and EUR 4 billion for flexibility. - Continuing to invest in opportunities such as spare engines and engine shops while prioritizing cost control.

- No indication of new fundraising through debt or equity is mentioned. - Ryanair plans to pay down its EUR 1.2 billion bond maturing in May out of its own cash resources. - The company expects to be debt-free after this bond repayment. - They aim to retain a strong balance sheet with cash trending around EUR 3.5 billion to EUR 4 billion. - Capital allocation will focus on investing in the fleet (300 MAX 10s), spare engines, and engine shops. - Opportunities to return more cash to shareholders via buybacks or special dividends are anticipated. - Ryanair highlights ongoing cost discipline and using the balance sheet sensibly without mentioning new fundraising.

- Ryanair's current aircraft deliveries are on track with Boeing, having received 25 delayed MAX aircraft ahead of schedule by end of December. - Remaining 4 delayed aircraft due in February have exited shop and are being fitted, expected about 1-1.5 weeks earlier than revised delivery dates. - MAX 7 certification expected in Q2 of the year; MAX 10 certification likely in Q3. - Ryanair is the third customer set to receive MAX 10, with first delivery expected February 2027. - Boeing has begun MAX 10 production prior to certification, indicating confidence in timely certification. - Boeing plans to increase production capacity from 47 to 63 aircraft/month by moving some production to Everett. - Ryanair anticipates first 15 MAX 10 deliveries between February and May 2027. - Overall outlook is optimistic, barring certification delays beyond early 2027.