SJVN Ltd Q1 FY27 Earnings Analysis

- SJVN plans capacity additions with commissioning of 2,284 MW in FY '27, 650 MW in FY '28, and about 2,500 MW from FY '29 to '30. - FY '26 revenue increased by 22% YoY to INR 3,545 crores, driven by tariff order recognition. - SGEL expects improved profitability in FY '27 as new solar plants ramp up to full capacity. - Buxar Thermal expected to move to profitability as PLF exceeds 70% in FY '27. - Renewable Energy Implementing Agency awarded 16 GW of projects, with signed PSA of 6 GW; balance PPAs pending. - Renewable tendering shows slower conversion due to DISCOMs’ adequacy plans and changing configurations; however, demand for renewable power with hybrid/storage solutions remains. - Total generation in FY '26 was 13,302 million units, a 25% increase from previous year. - Future growth targets (25,000 MW by 2030, 50,000 MW by 2040) are under review with a new business plan forthcoming.

- FY '26 PAT was INR 1,008 crores, a 4% increase from FY '25, despite challenges. - Losses in subsidiaries SGEL and Buxar Thermal due to initial operations and lower PLF are expected to improve. - Buxar Thermal plant projected to turn profitable in FY '27 as PLF surpasses 70%. - Significant capacity additions planned: 2,284 MW in FY '27, 650 MW in FY '28, and 2,500 MW during FY '29-30. - Focus on solar capacity expansion in near-term, with hydro projects commissioning from FY '29 onwards. - Ongoing progress in Nepal hydro project aiming for commissioning by December 2028, adding to future earnings. - Tariff and operational efficiencies expected to stabilize, with new business plan and realistic growth targets forthcoming. - Curtailment issues being addressed (e.g., SVR at Bikaner) to ensure full capacity utilization. - Overall, earnings and profits are expected to improve substantially from FY '27 onwards with capacity ramp-up and project stabilization.

- FY '26 CAPEX plan: INR 9,400 crores - FY '27 CAPEX plan: INR 7,800 crores - FY '28 CAPEX plan: INR 7,500 crores - Total under construction portfolio includes: - Four hydro projects (1,561.5 MW) - Second unit of Buxar Thermal Power Plant (660 MW) - Ten solar projects (1,705 MW) - Focus on commissioning: - 2,284 MW in FY '27 - 650 MW in FY '28 - Around 2,500 MW between FY '29 to FY '30 - Continued expansion in renewables: - Awarded 16 GW renewable energy projects across solar, wind, hybrid, and storage - Acting as Renewable Energy Implementing Agency - New business plan under review to set realistic targets beyond earlier ambitious visions of 25,000 MW by 2030 and 50,000 MW by 2040.

- The transcript does not explicitly mention any current or planned fundraising through equity. - Regarding CAPEX, SJVN has a significant capital expenditure plan: around INR 9,400 crores for FY '27, INR 7,800 crores for FY '28, and INR 7,500 crores for FY '29. - While discussing expansion and CAPEX funding, the management acknowledged the large CAPEX but did not specify the mode of funding (debt or equity). - There's no direct statement about new debt or equity issuance in the provided pages, indicating no announced fundraising yet. - The company is reviewing business plans and growth targets, which may lead to announcements on funding in the future.

- SJVN, as Renewable Energy Implementing Agency (REIA), has awarded contracts for around 16 GW (16,000 MW) renewable energy projects. - Out of these, PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements) signed for approximately 6 GW. - Balance 9-10 GW of PPAs are pending and under progress. - Due to multiple tenders from various agencies and DISCOMs’ changing requirements, the conversion of the pending 9 GW PPAs to firm orders remains uncertain. - Issues include the configuration of tenders (FDRE, pure solar, hybrid solar-wind), adequacy plans of DISCOMs, and tariff competitiveness. - Some solar tariffs in signed tenders are attractive (~2.53 to 2.54 INR/unit) compared to new state tenders (~2.8 to 2.9 INR/unit), encouraging potential sales. - Additionally, SJVN successfully awarded a 2000 MWh Battery Energy Storage System contract across UP and Haryana. In summary, the current orderbook is 6 GW signed PPAs, with around 9 GW pending, conversion of which remains uncertain but actively pursued.