YPF Sociedad Anónima Q4 FY25 Earnings Analysis

- YPF expects continued strong production growth, particularly in shale oil, targeting around 165,000 barrels per day for 2025 with an exit rate slightly exceeding 190,000 barrels per day. - Shale production represents a major driver, with output increasing significantly (e.g., La Angostura Sur block growing from 2,000 to 35,000 barrels per day in 12 months) and plans to reach a plateau over 80,000 barrels per day. - The company plans to become a 100% shale player in the near future, reducing conventional production and costs, with anticipated lifting costs around $5/BOE. - CapEx remains focused on developing unconventional resources (~70% of total quarterly investment) maintaining operational efficiency and expanding shale production. - Long-term production guidance includes approximately 215 mboe/d in 2026 and 290 mboe/d in 2027. - Downstream operations maintain strong processing levels, supporting revenue streams.

- YPF expects strong production growth with average production targets of 215,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 290,000 barrels per day in 2027 (Page 6). - Shale oil production increased substantially, driving operational efficiency and lifting cost reductions by 40% over two years, leading to an annualized saving of approximately $1.3 billion (Page 3). - The company aims to become a 100% shale player with a lifting cost structure around $5 per BOE, improving profitability (Page 3). - Adjusted EBITDA remained flat year-over-year despite lower international prices, with sequential increases of over 20% supported by higher shale production (Page 1). - Operational efficiencies and cost reductions are expected to continue, maintaining strong profitability levels despite market volatility (Pages 1, 8). - No explicit EPS guidance was provided, but continued operational improvements and portfolio optimization should support earnings growth.

- YPF is focusing on capital discipline and efficiency, expecting 2025 CapEx to be slightly below early-year guidance. - For 2026 and beyond, drilling and completion costs are under negotiation with service companies aiming to reduce unit costs. - Significant ongoing investment in the Argentina LNG project (Phase 1-3), with total CapEx estimated at $20-$25 billion, including upstream investments; financing expected via project finance with ECAs, development banks, and commercial banks. - CapEx is shifting from conventional to shale assets; conventional investments dropped from 35% in 2023 to 5% by September 2025. - Midstream and downstream investments continue, including refinery improvements and expansion of export capacity for refined products. - YPF remains open to active portfolio management, including potential asset divestments and targeted acquisitions mainly in Vaca Muerta shale but no major acquisitions planned for 2026. - Plans to sell mature conventional assets and Metrogas concession to optimize capital allocation.

- YPF completed several debt issuances in Q3 2025: - Issued two dollar net bonds totaling $300 million at 7.5% interest for 2.5 years. - Issued $225 million in dollar capital bonds with a 5-year tenure at 8.5%. - Issued $100 million net bond in October with 15-month tenure at 6%. - Total new local bonds issued amount to $625 million with an average tenure of 3 years and 7.65% interest rate. - Prepaid $120 million on secured notes due 2026 to reduce debt cost. - In October, reopened a $700 million syndicated export-backed loan with 3-year tenure from 10 international banks for 2026 maturities financing. - Recently returned to international capital markets with a $500 million bond issuance due 2031 at an 8.75% yield, heavily oversubscribed. - Proceeds from the latest issuance aimed to repay bridge loans for asset acquisitions and finance YPF's investment plan. - No mentions of new equity fundraising during this period.

- As of the third quarter 2025, YPF successfully completed a $500 million reopening of its 2031 international bonds at a yield of 8.75%. - The bond issuance was oversubscribed 3x with demand reaching $1.5 billion, indicating strong investor confidence. - YPF issued new local bonds totaling $625 million with an average tenure of 3 years and a 7.65% interest rate. - In October, YPF secured a $700 million export-backed syndicate loan from 10 international banks with a 3-year tenure. - Additional recent bond issuance includes $100 million with a 15-month tenure at 6% interest. - These issuances and loans are part of YPF's financial strategy to fund acquisitions (e.g., shale assets) and investment plans. - No explicit mention of further pending orders or specific new financing deals beyond these in the transcript.