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Aarti Industries LtdQ1 FY24

Aarti Industries Ltd Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 457P/E: 41.0Market Cap: ₹16.9K CrSector: Chemicals & Petrochemicals

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Volume growth for FY'25 is expected between 20% to 30%, with growth starting from Q1 and accelerating substantially in the second half (Q2 onwards).
  • Expansion projects including Acid Phase-2, Ethylation, Nitro Toluene, and specialty chemical blocks are expected to be commissioned in FY'25, contributing to volume and revenue growth.
  • Chloro Toluene and downstream product plants are planned to be commissioned by FY'26, adding higher-margin products and improving EBITDA margins.
  • Long-term contracts, including MMA and Deepak Fertilizers contracts, are expected to ramp up, increasing contract revenues significantly in FY'25 and beyond.
  • Agrochemical demand is expected to remain muted in the first half of calendar year 2024 and improve towards FY'25.
  • Overall, gradual recovery in discretionary and non-discretionary segments will support sustained sales and volume growth over the next 2-3 years.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • EBITDA guidance for FY25 is maintained at Rs. 1,450-1,700 crore, supported by volume ramp-ups and operating leverage.
  • Volume growth expected to start from Q1 FY25, with stronger growth from Q2 onwards due to new project commencements.
  • Margins expected to improve structurally from FY26-27 with increased sales of value-added Chloro Toluene products.
  • Existing asset expansions could add another 10-15% EBITDA (~Rs. 2,000 crore potential).
  • Domestic demand in agrochemical expected to recover strongly in the second half of FY25.
  • Capex of Rs. 1,500-1,800 crore planned for FY25 focusing on capacity expansions and backward integration supporting future growth.
  • Debt levels may remain stable or slightly higher due to ongoing capex, with cost of debt around 7.5%–8%, expected to remain stable.
  • Tax rate expected around 12-16% for FY25 and FY26.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • There is no explicit mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity in the provided transcript.
  • The company is undertaking significant capex of INR 1,500-1,800 crores in FY25 and expects similar or upward capex in FY26, primarily funded through ongoing resources.
  • Chetan Gandhi mentioned that debt levels are not expected to reduce on an absolute basis due to ongoing capex, but working capital optimization efforts are underway.
  • The management did not indicate any plans for new equity fundraising.
  • Cost of debt is currently around 7.5%-8% and expected to remain similar next year, indicating reliance on existing debt facilities.
  • Overall, the company seems to be managing expansion via internal accruals and existing debt rather than new external fundraising at this time.

Order book

- MMA long-term contract: INR 900 crores revenue in FY'24, expected to ramp up to INR 1,500 crores in FY'25 (50%-60% YoY increase). - Deepak Fertilizers contract: INR 8,000 crore contract over 20 years, implying about INR 400 crores annual revenue. - Nitro Toluene and downstream volumes are partially tied up with customers, with commissioning expected by Q2 FY25. - Ongoing projects such as Acid Phase-2, Ethylation expansion, Nitro Toluene expansion, specialty chemicals blocks are scheduled for FY25 commissioning. - Chloro Toluene project expected to start initial phase by FY26. - Sustained recovery in discretionary segments and emerging revival in non-discretionary portfolio expected to drive order volumes and backlog ramp-up. - Volume growth expected post-FY25 with expansion in capacities and new product line ramp-up. Overall, order backlog and contracts indicate strong revenue visibility with gradual ramp-ups over FY25 and beyond.

Capex plans

Yes
  • FY'24 capex was over INR 1,280 crore on project expansions.
  • Planned capex for FY'25 is INR 1,500-1,800 crore.
  • Major ongoing expansions include Acid Phase-2 Capacity Expansion, Specialty Chemicals Blocks, Ethylation, Nitro Toluene capacities, and asset upgradation.
  • Phase-1 of the Chloro Toluene project is expected to commence by FY'26.
  • FY'26 capex likely to exceed INR 1,000 crore but exact numbers are yet to be finalized.
  • Over the next two years, total planned investment is approximately INR 3,000-3,500 crore.
  • More than 50% of FY'26 capex will be allocated to the new site expansion at Jhagadia, including multipurpose and Chloro Toluene plants.
  • Capex is largely productive, focused on revenue growth and backward integration, with minimal maintenance capex.
  • Growth initiatives aimed at strengthening the company’s position in the global chemical value chain.

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