Adani Energy Solutions Ltd

Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company expects borrowings to increase in line with capex and growth but will maintain a net leverage ratio around 4.5x to 4.7x, ensuring financial discipline. - Capex locked in at INR 77,000 crores over the next 4 years will guide borrowing plans. - Borrowing levels could rise to INR 125,000 crores to INR 150,000 crores during high growth phases, but management is confident they will not exceed targeted leverage. - The company has successfully refinanced a $500 million bond with a U.S. insurance investor, indicating ongoing debt management and access to funding. - Equity portion of capex will likely be funded through internal accruals; debt will finance approximately 70% of projects. - No explicit mention of new equity fundraising in the transcript, focus primarily on managing and increasing debt prudently.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Capex guidance for FY27 is around INR 22,000 crores: - Transmission: ~INR 15,500 crores - Distribution: ~INR 2,350 crores - Smart metering: ~INR 3,900 crores - FY28 estimated capex is approximately INR 23,000 crores: - Transmission: ~INR 20,000 crores - Distribution: ~INR 2,000 crores - Smart metering: ~INR 1,500 crores (based on existing order book) - Capex includes significant projects like Fatehpur-Bhadla (main capex in FY27-FY28) and Mumbai HVDC (commissioned FY26). - INR 77,000 crores of capex is already locked in over the next 4 years. - Focus on improving capex deployment capability while maintaining strong credit ratings (AAA/AAA+). - Expect continued investments in transmission, distribution, smart metering, and C&I businesses, with strategic intent to capture growing market opportunities and maintain growth momentum.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Transmission EBITDA is expected to triple in 3 to 4 years, driven by the completion of INR72,000 crores under-construction projects, adding about INR10,000 crores in tariff revenue (Pages 13-14). - Operating profit is projected to grow from around INR8,000 crores in FY26 to approximately INR11,500 crores next year due to capitalization of ongoing projects (Page 14). - Capex guidance indicates INR22,000 crores in FY27 and around INR23,000 crores in FY28, supporting growth primarily in transmission with INR15,500 - 20,000 crores yearly spending (Page 5). - Smart meter installations are growing rapidly, with 82.29 lakh installed in FY26 and 1 crore expected in FY27, driving smart meter EBITDA growth (Pages 11-12). - C&I segment, with 5,000 MW renewable capacity contracted, is becoming a significant growth driver alongside transmission, distribution, and smart metering (Page 5). - Borrowing expected to be managed to maintain net leverage between 4.5x to 4.7x despite growth phase (Page 18).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Operating profit (FY26): ~INR8,000 crores, expected to more than double in 3-4 years. - Transmission EBITDA expected to triple in next 36-40 months as current projects complete. - Next-year operating profit (FY27) projected around INR11,500 crores driven by capitalization. - Smart meter business EBITDA expected to generate INR2,400 to 3,000 crores once fully ramped. - Distribution business EBITDA currently ~INR2,500 crores, expected to grow to ~INR3,000+ crores. - Capex planned at INR22,000 crores for FY27 and up to INR23,000-25,000 crores for FY28 to support growth. - Management maintains leverage ratio target of 4.5x to 4.7x despite high capex. - Earnings growth driven largely by transmission project capitalization, smart metering scale-up, and new C&I segment opportunities. - Overall, earnings and operating profit are poised for strong, sustained growth with disciplined financial management.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Smart Metering: - Current concession reached 2.46 crore meters (from initial 2.3 crore). - Pending market includes states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and MP. - Expect to install around 1 crore smart meters in FY27. - Transmission: - Tender pipeline: INR 1.5 trillion (~INR 1.5 lakh crores) overall. - 12-month tender pipeline: INR 80,000 to 1 lakh crores. - Market share expected to be maintained between 25% to 30%. - Capex pipeline: - FY27 Capex expected INR 21,000-22,000 crores (Transmission INR 15,500 cr, Distribution INR 2,350 cr, Smart metering INR 3,900 cr). - FY28 Capex estimated around INR 22,000-25,000 crores (Transmission ~INR 20,000 cr, Distribution ~INR 2,000 cr, Smart metering ~INR 1,500 cr). - Commercial & Industrial (C&I): - 5,000 MW renewable capacity contracted. - Dozens of third-party consumers aggregating ~1,400 MW capacity.