Adani Energy Solutions Ltd

Q2 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Capitalization run rate targeted around INR 15,000-16,000 crores annually, with INR 60,000 crores of projects to be completed over next 3-4 years. - Mumbai HVDC project valued at INR 7,000 crores; Phase 2 estimated around INR 10,000 crores considering current market. - INR 90,000 crores transmission bid pipeline expected to be bid out within approximately one year, including two major HVDC projects: Rajasthan (~INR 25,000 crores) and Khavda-Olpad (~INR 20,000 crores). - Transmission capex guidance for FY ‘26: INR 12,000 to 13,000 crores, on track despite monsoon impact. - Ongoing smart meter business expansion, targeting scale-up to 6 crore meters in 1.5 years. - District cooling facility (45,000 TR capacity) at Mundra being developed as a strategic new business opportunity. - C&I business growing with contracted capacity at 717 MW, aiming to scale up with energy storage integration.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company targets sustaining a capitalization run rate of around INR 15,000-16,000 crores annually, aligned with a project pipeline worth INR 60,000 crores over the next 3-4 years. (Page 16) - Smart meter business is expected to grow significantly, aiming to complete over 1 crore installations in FY '25, with further expansion as more states initiate smart metering tenders. (Pages 6, 9) - The Commercial & Industrial (C&I) energy solutions segment is planned to scale up significantly with a target of contracting about 7,000 MW over the next 5 years, leveraging regulatory improvements and differentiated service offerings. (Pages 10-12) - Transmission projects commissioning and bidding activity are poised to increase after a temporary slowdown due to regulatory review, with active opportunities both at interstate and state levels (Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan). (Pages 16, 17, 20) - Revenue from smart meters is growing, with INR 115 crores recorded in the latest quarter, expected to rise with meter installations. (Page 6)
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Smart Meter Business: Revenue expected to grow as smart meter installations approach 1 crore, with per meter per month revenue around INR 100; currently nascent but expected to be reported as a separate segment in future. - Transmission Business: Capitalization of approximately INR15,000-16,000 crore projects yearly, with ~INR7,000 crore from Mumbai HVDC alone, supporting revenue growth. - C&I Business: Early phase with INR18 crore revenue this quarter; potential to scale significantly with contracted load at 717 MW and 13-14 industrial customers. - Depreciation Impact: Some temporary EBITDA/revenue dips due to depreciation adjustments on old cost-plus projects, but majority of this drag is behind; future projects on fixed tariff basis limiting similar impacts. - District Cooling & Energy Solutions: Emerging opportunities expected to enhance operational profitability. - Overall: Company is confident of meeting guidance for executing capex and expanding businesses, indicating positive earnings growth trajectory.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Adani Energy Solutions has a project pipeline of close to INR 60,000 crores to be completed in the next 3 to 4 years. - Transmission opportunity worth INR 90,000 crores, with ~90% from interstate projects; states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Rajasthan are actively auctioning projects. - Smart meter pending orders: About 12 crore meters are yet to be bid out, with major upcoming opportunities in Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. - Current smart meter execution: Target to complete 1 crore plus meters this year and balance in the next 1.5 years. - Recent projects progressing well with timely commissioning; exceptions include NKTL and WRSR projects nearing commissioning. - One HVDC bid submitted and under evaluation; Mumbai HVDC (INR 7,000 crore) project landmark expected to commission this year. - Parallel license applications progressing in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and UP with expected favorable decisions soon.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

The provided pages do not mention any specific current or future fundraising plans through debt or equity for Adani Energy Solutions Limited. The discussions primarily focus on: - Capitalization targets (~INR 15,000-16,000 crores annually over the next 3-4 years) - Project funding through capitalization of assets like Mumbai HVDC (~INR 7,000 crores) - No direct reference to new equity or debt fundraising initiatives - Emphasis on bidding for transmission and smart meter projects and executing existing order books Therefore, there is no explicit information about plans for raising fresh capital via debt or equity in the current excerpts.