Adani Energy Solutions Ltd

Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- AESL raised equity of Rs 8,300 crore through a QIP recently, which has fully funded current projects under construction. - No immediate equity fundraising planned post QIP as current projects and associated debt funding are fully tied up. - Future project funding will continue with a 70:30 debt-to-equity mix. - Debt financing options remain open and include bank financing, dollar bonds, and domestic bonds, to be evaluated as needed. - Regarding an existing bond maturing in August 2026, AESL plans to approach the market for refinancing at the appropriate time. - No specific timeline for new fundraises mentioned; funding strategy based on prudent investment decisions and project needs.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Current capex deployment is strong, with Rs 3,000 crore deployed in the recent quarter, 2.5 times higher than the previous year. - Total capex in the first half of the year is Rs 4,400 crore, 1.7 times last year's first half. - Expected capex next year is about Rs 10,000 crore, split among transmission, distribution, and smart metering segments. - Transmission projects under construction amount to ~Rs 31,000 crore, with an additional Rs 15,000 crore expected to be added soon, totaling ~Rs 45,000 crore. - Smart meter installations are ramping up, with plans to install 30-35 lakh meters in the next six months and reach 40-42 lakh by FY25-end. - Annual capex for AEML is around Rs 1,700-1,800 crore for distribution and transmission investments. - Project debt funding is maintained at about 70% debt and 30% equity ratio. - C&I power solutions vertical is incubated as a new business line with expected contributions soon.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Smart Metering: Expect to add 30-35 lakh meters in the next six months, reaching 40-45 lakh meters by FY25-end; target to deploy about 70 lakh meters from awarded contracts in FY26, plus an additional 30 lakh from new contracts. - Transmission: Current projects under construction worth ~Rs 31,000 crore with EBITDA of ~Rs 4,200 crore expected to commission over next 2 years; additional Rs 15,000 crore projects planned, potentially adding Rs 1,600-1,700 crore EBITDA. - Transmission Bidding: Rs 85,000 crore transmission bid pipeline over next 6 months; another Rs 1 lakh crore expected over next 1-1.5 years. - C&I Business: Targeting 700-1,000 crore units in a couple of years with ~Rs 150 crore EBITDA; discussions underway with large customers like data centers. - Overall EBITDA Growth: Expected to exceed 15%, potentially over 20% considering ongoing project execution and capex-driven growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- AESL projects EBITDA growth to exceed 15%, supported by strong ongoing and planned capex. - Capex deployment accelerated: Rs 4,400 crore in H1 FY25, 1.7x of last year, locking in future profitability. - Transmission projects under construction (~Rs 31,000 crore) expected to contribute ~Rs 4,200 crore EBITDA within two years, with additional Rs 15,000 crore projects expected, adding ~Rs 1,600-1,700 crore EBITDA. - Distribution business capex of Rs 1,700-1,800 crore annually leading to Rs 500 crore regulated equity addition yearly, supporting earnings growth. - Smart meter installations ramping up to ~40-42 lakh meters this year, enhancing future revenue streams. - C&I Power Solutions business expected to contribute Rs 150 crore annualized EBITDA soon, with discussions ongoing with major clients. - Overall, strong capex-led growth trajectory with increasing operational efficiency and expanding asset base to drive earnings and EPS growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Next six months transmission bidding pipeline: ~Rs 85,000 crore capex of transmission projects. - Includes two HVDC projects (one Rajasthan and one Khavda) expected in the second half. - Next 12-18 months: Additional ~Rs 1 lakh crore of transmission capex to come under bidding. - Company expects to maintain or increase market share, targeting Rs 15,000 crore to Rs 20,000 crore worth of new projects in the next six months. - Current regulated equity in transmission is about Rs 3,400 crore; Mumbai HVDC project (~Rs 2,000 crore regulated equity) to be added on commissioning. - Annual capex in distribution (AEML) is around Rs 1,700 to Rs 1,800 crore, adding about Rs 500 crore regulated equity annually. - Smart metering projects ongoing, with 30-35 lakh meters targeted for deployment in the next six months. - Smart meter installation expected to reach 40-42 lakh meters by FY25 end, with continued bidding opportunities ahead.