Adani Green Energy Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 1margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
πŸ’°

fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Adani Green Energy has already fully funded its 50 GW capacity target for 2030 from both debt and equity perspectives. - Debt: The company has construction facilities tied up and deep access to Indian debt markets. Existing revolving facilities are sufficient and get churned annually. - Equity: Internal accruals and promoter commitments via subscription of warrants ensure 100% of equity needs are met for the 50 GW target. - No additional equity fundraising is currently planned or required. - The company has refinanced a Restricted Group 1 bond with an 18-year bond issuance of US $409 million, oversubscribed 6.5x, indicating strong investor confidence. - Overall, capital to support growth targets is secured without the need for new fundraising at present.
πŸ—οΈ

capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Adani Green plans to add about 6,000 MW of greenfield capacity in FY25 and a similar or slightly higher number in FY26, targeting 6,000 to 8,000 MW annually going forward. - They aim to add at least 5 GW of pumped hydro storage capacity by 2030, with construction started on the first 500 MW project in Andhra Pradesh. - Capital cost estimates for solar are around INR 5 crores per MW and wind approximately INR 6.5 crores per MW. - Pumped storage capital cost is estimated between INR 4.5 crores to INR 5 crores per MW, considered competitive. - The 50 GW renewable capacity target by 2030 is fully funded from both debt and equity, including internal accruals and promoter subscription of warrants. - Transmission infrastructure is proactively planned to support capacity expansion, with government bids expected this year to ensure connectivity.
πŸ“Š

revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Adani Green Energy targets a greenfield capacity addition of 6,000 to 8,000 MW annually in FY25 and FY26, supporting robust volume growth. - Revenue from power supply increased 33% YoY to INR 7,735 crore in FY24, indicating strong sales growth momentum. - EBITDA grew 30% to INR 7,222 crore with a run-rate EBITDA of INR 10,462 crore, reflecting improving profitability. - The company expects a significant increase in locked-in contracts over the next 2 years, including PPAs and C&I customers, enhancing revenue visibility. - Merchant portfolio capacity is currently ~5% with an expected stable contribution of about 10% (combined merchant and C&I sales), allowing flexible revenue streams. - Plans to add at least 5 GW of pumped hydro storage by 2030 enhance long-term capacity and revenue potential. - Fully funded 50 GW capacity target by 2030 underpins growth expectations without financial constraints.
πŸ“ˆ

margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- FY24 saw a 33% revenue increase to INR 7,735 crore and 30% EBITDA growth to INR 7,222 crore. - Run-rate EBITDA stands strong at INR 10,462 crore with net debt to EBITDA improved from 5.4x to 4x. - Cash profit increased by 25% to INR 3,986 crore. - Capacity addition guidance: 6,000 MW greenfield capacity addition targeted in FY25; similar or higher addition expected in FY26. - Plans to add 6,000 to 8,000 MW of new capacity per year going forward. - Growth driven by a mix of locked-in PPAs (20 GW), high-credit C&I customers, and merchant/open market sales (~10% capacity). - Focus on operational excellence, resilient supply chains, and innovation to sustain margins (92% EBITDA margin). - 50 GW capacity target by 2030 is fully funded, supporting long-term growth. - Strategic portfolio diversification including pumped hydro storage (5 GW by 2030) enhances stability and profitability.
πŸ“‹

orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) has a robust pipeline of projects with a focus on executing 6,000 to 8,000 MW of greenfield capacity addition annually in FY25 and FY26. - The company has 20 GW of locked-in Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). - Additionally, AGEL is actively pursuing high-rated C&I customers and various Adani Group companies for power offtake to meet decarbonization needs. - The company aims for a total renewable energy capacity target of 50 GW by 2030, up from the earlier 45 GW. - All 50 GW capacity is fully funded from both debt and equity perspectives. - AGEL has locked-in land parcels and transmission connectivity in Rajasthan and Gujarat for smooth project execution. - They are developing the world’s largest single-location renewable energy plant (30,000 MW) at Khavda, to be completed by 2029. - The current merchant capacity without signed PPAs is approximately 550 MW out of 10,934 MW effective capacity.