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Adani Green Energy LtdQ1 FY25

Adani Green Energy Ltd Q1 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 1,525P/E: 125.4Market Cap: ₹2.3L CrSector: Power

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

3 of 5 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • Adani Green Energy aims to add 5 GW of renewable capacity annually, targeting 30 GW by 2029 and 50 GW by 2030.
  • For FY '26, they plan to commission 5 GW of capacity, with 95% already sanctioned and debt tied up.
  • Energy sales grew 28% in FY '25 to 28 billion units; revenue from power supply increased 23% to INR 9,495 crore; EBITDA rose 22% to INR 8,818 crore.
  • The company expects similar or better CUF (capacity utilization factor) going forward, aided by operational stabilization and improved execution.
  • They anticipate growth driven by a balanced mix of merchant sales, PPAs, and emerging opportunities like storage and hybrid projects.
  • Capital management is robust, with long-term refinancing aligned to asset cash flows to support scaled growth.
  • The management is confident in achieving projected growth due to technology deployment, operational excellence, and team dedication.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Adani Green Energy is committed to delivering robust growth, targeting 50 GW capacity by 2030 with a run rate of ~5 GW annual additions.
  • FY25 saw strong financials: over $1 billion EBITDA, 28% YoY increase in energy sales, 23% revenue growth to INR 9,495 crores, and 22% EBITDA increase to INR 8,818 crores.
  • Capex for FY26 includes commissioning 5 GW capacity, with 95% under sanction and debt tied up, supporting revenue growth.
  • Operational improvements and technology deployments have enhanced operational excellence, raising confidence in projected performance.
  • Merchant sales realizations expected to maintain with solar around INR 3.6–3.7/kWh (including REC), and wind around INR 6/kWh including ISTS waiver benefits.
  • Focus on improving CUF with newer turbine technology, expecting better operational efficiency.
  • Capital management aligned with long-term asset cash flows, enabling sustained profitability and earnings growth.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • For FY '26, Adani Green is targeting to commission 5 GW of capacity, with nearly 95% of this under various sanctions and backed by secured debt tie-ups.
  • The company mentioned refinancing a new construction facility of $1.06 billion with a AA+ rating, having a 19-year tenure aligned with asset cash flows.
  • They stated confidence in their capital management framework to fully fund growth up to 50 GW by 2030 while maintaining strict credit discipline.
  • Debt tie-ups primarily involve domestic sources like REC and PFC.
  • No explicit mention of fresh equity fundraising in the transcript.
  • Overall, the focus is on well-structured long-term debt financing to support capacity expansion with no immediate plans disclosed for new equity issuance.

Order book

Yes
  • Adani Green Energy is targeting 50 GW capacity by 2030.
  • Currently, 14.243 GW is operational.
  • Around 5 GW capacity targeted for commissioning in FY '26 with 95% sanction and debt tie-up done.
  • The company has approximately 33 GW portfolio comprising contracted PPAs and merchant capacities:
  • - ~30 GW under signed or near-finalized PPAs.
  • - ~3 GW merchant capacity.
  • Approximately 9.6 GW won in the last year; about 6.25 GW of this already signed PPAs, with ~3 GW pending signing but in process.
  • The organization follows timelines as per contract agreements, typically 72 months (6 years) for project execution.
  • The pipeline beyond contracted projects includes merchant, C&I, and CFDs capacities making up roughly 25% of the total portfolio.

Capex plans

Yes
  • FY '26 Capex: Targeting to commission 5 gigawatts of capacity.
  • Approximately 95% of this 5 GW capex is under various sanctions with debt tie-up completed, primarily from domestic sources (REC, PFC).
  • Ongoing execution of large projects like the 600 MW hybrid project at Khavda expected to commission this year.
  • Plans to execute the UP Pumped Storage Project (PSP) over 72 months (6 years).
  • Strategic focus on early and best-in-class execution of projects, with flexibility on revenue strategy (merchant or contracted).
  • Exploring merchant battery storage opportunities, monitoring market arbitrage but no definitive plans announced yet.
  • Targeting 30 GW operational capacity by 2029, supported by infrastructure investment and enhanced operational readiness.
  • Monitoring and aligning capex with grid evacuation capacities, especially at Khavda, with expected expansions adding 4 GW by June and 7 GW by December 2025.

How does Adani Green Energy Ltd rank vs peers in Power?

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1Adani Green Energy Ltd
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