ADF Foods LtdQ4 FY24

ADF Foods Ltd Q4 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 265P/E: 30.6Market Cap: ₹3.0K Cr

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

3 of 5 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • ADF Foods aims for INR 100 crores revenue from the India market in the next 3 years (Page 10).
  • E-commerce segment growing at ~15% month-on-month, targeting INR 100 crores in 3 years (Page 16).
  • Ashoka brand expected to maintain ~25-30% revenue growth, with FY'24 revenue around INR 260-270 crores and FY'25 target above INR 350 crores (Page 9).
  • Supply chain normalization expected to restore distribution business to INR 100 crores in FY'25 (Page 12).
  • Expansion plans include modern trade and general trade rollout in India, starting with e-commerce (Page 10).
  • Overall company revenue growth previously targeted at 15-20%, with some freight and supply challenges impacting near term but expected to recover (Page 7).
  • New product launches and supermarket listings aim to accelerate long-term growth (Pages 4,6).

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • PLI scheme benefits are expected to increase from INR 9 crores in FY '25 to INR 15-16 crores in FY '26 and around INR 20 crores in FY '27, totaling INR 62 crores over five years (FY '23 to FY '27).
  • Ashoka brand revenue is expected to grow at about 25%-30% CAGR, with FY'25 projected revenue of INR 350+ crores.
  • Overall revenue growth target of around 15% year-on-year, with some volatility due to supply chain and freight cost issues.
  • EBITDA margins improved significantly to around 24.6% (9 months FY '24 standalone), driven mainly by cost reduction and better product mix, expected to be maintained despite freight cost pressures.
  • Capex plans include INR 60 crores for a greenfield plant starting April FY '25 to support volume growth without significant recurring debt.
  • Ongoing investments in brand building and distribution to drive future profitability and earnings growth.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • No significant new debt is currently planned; the company is sitting on cash of INR 140 crores.
  • For the greenfield plant (INR 60 crores Phase 1 capex), some loan borrowing is planned as part of utilizing a central government grant that requires lender involvement.
  • No other incremental debt requirement is anticipated apart from this.
  • The Board has approved an INR 13 crore investment via optionally convertible redeemable preference shares in subsidiary Telluric Foods India Limited to support brand building and working capital.
  • Overall, no major equity fundraises were mentioned beyond this subsidiary investment.

Order book

Yes
  • The company faced shipment delays due to the Red Sea crisis towards the end of Q3 FY'24, impacting sales and order fulfillment.
  • Freight container availability issues in December led to lost sales in the last 15 days of December.
  • These shipment and freight issues have now been resolved, and the orders that were delayed are expected to be fulfilled in Q4.
  • The management mentioned having a good order book for Q4, indicating healthy pending orders.
  • With freight and shipment challenges being addressed, the company is optimistic about meeting its revenue targets for the year.
  • There is confidence that supply chain disruptions will be streamlined by the next financial year, implying improved order fulfillment going forward.

Capex plans

Yes
  • INR 3.5 crores spent on debottlenecking in the current year.
  • INR 3.5 crores spent on cold storage project at Nadiad, with an additional committed INR 11 crores to complete by April of the current year.
  • Normal capex expected to be around INR 3-4 crores for existing plants in FY'25.
  • Greenfield plant for Soul brand with Phase 1 capex of INR 60 crores planned over 15 months starting from April; further phases expected post Phase 1.
  • Investment of INR 13 crores in optionally convertible redeemable preference shares in subsidiary Telluric Foods India Limited for brand building and working capital.
  • These capex and investments aim to expand production capacity, support brand growth, and improve distribution capabilities.

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