Aditya Birla Real Estate Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Realty

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company is open to exploring strategic tie-ups and platform funding for additional growth capital, similar to models used by Mahindra and Godrej. - Currently, funds are not very interested in residential equity, but discussions are ongoing for future possibilities. - No immediate equity fundraising planned as the company feels well-capitalized for current plans. - Debt levels are targeted to remain around INR 2,000-2,500 crores by the end of next year, with potential peaks depending on new deal signings. - The blended cost of borrowing is around 7.5%, expected to rise to close to 8% after shifting to long-term borrowings. - The company is moving from short-term to long-term debt, including lease rental discounting models to manage interest costs. - Debt could increase to INR 3,000-4,000 crores cautiously if required to fuel real estate growth, with capacity up to INR 5,000 crores if needed.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Paper Business: - Capex planned to increase capacity from ~5 lakh tons to 6.25 lakh tons over 3 years. - Capex also aimed at efficiency improvements and cost rationalization measures. - Expected to drive EBITDA margins to around 22%-23%. - Textile Business: - No significant capex planned currently. - Focus is on restructuring to save fixed costs and enhance profitability. - Real Estate: - New land acquisitions with potential project launches in Bengaluru, Mumbai (Walkeshwar), and others. - Project launches planned in FY '24 and FY '25 (e.g., Walkeshwar, Devanahalli, Rajarajeshwari Nagar). - Exploring platform funding and long-term borrowings for growth capital. - Debt Management: - Plans to replace short-term debt with long-term debt. - No specific debt cap but cautious evaluation based on growth and cash flows.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Textile Business: Expected turnaround and better growth starting Q4 FY'24 with improving market sentiment; continuous cost-saving efforts ongoing to improve profitability. - Paper Business: Capacity planned to increase from ~5 lakh tons to 6.25 lakh tons over 3 years; target EBITDA margins of 22%-23% going forward through capacity expansion, efficiency improvements, and cost rationalization. - Real Estate Business: - Targeting INR3,000 crores in sales bookings for the current year, aiming for INR5,000 crores next year. - Aspires to reach INR10,000 crores in bookings within 3-4 years. - Sales velocity expected to improve with new launches starting late Q2/Q3 FY'24. - Focus on premium and luxury segments with strong demand; limited presence in 4 key cities covering ~65% of market. - Residential market expected to see multi-year traction with rising prices and reduced inventory. - Overall expectation: Gradual improvement and robust growth driven by real estate launches, paper capacity expansion, and textile business recovery.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Textile Business: Expected turnaround from Q4 FY '24 with improved market sentiment and demand both domestically and internationally. Continuous efforts on cost savings anticipated. (Page 19-20) - Paper Business: Ongoing cost reduction measures have saved INR80-90 crores annually; further cost savings expected through efficiencies and capacity expansion from roughly 5 lakh tons to 6.25 lakh tons over 3 years. Targeting EBITDA margins of 22-23% going forward. (Page 18-19) - Real Estate Business: Targeting INR3,000 crores sales booking in current year and INR5,000 crores next year, with aspirations to reach INR10,000 crores bookings in 3-4 years. Aim for sustainable growth with focus on premium segment. Expected PAT margin around 20-25%, with some projects achieving over 50% EBIT margins. (Pages 13-17) - Debt management: Expect debt to remain stable around INR2,000-2,500 crores as cash flows kick in, supporting growth without significant leverage increase. (Pages 5-6, 14) - Overall, business expects improved profitability driven by market recovery, cost controls, capacity expansion, and premium market focus especially from Q4 FY '24 onwards.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The paper and pulp segment is experiencing subdued demand currently; several new government tenders for publishing books are expected between August 15 and October, with order placements likely from late October or November. - Overall, the real estate business is optimistic, targeting INR3,000 crores of sales bookings for the current year and hopes to cross INR5,000 crores next year. - Real estate bookings are aimed to reach about INR10,000 crores in the next 3-4 years. - Current major project launches include significant GDVs such as INR2,800 crores in Delhi (7 acres, 1.4 million sq ft) and INR8,000 crores in Thane (31 acres, 5.5 million sq ft). - Rental income is stable at approximately INR130 crores annually with 100% occupancy and expected to increase. - The company recognises a current lack of inventory in some markets like Worli, with new launches planned in Q4 to boost sales velocity.