Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd
Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Chemicals & Petrochemicals
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company has historically expanded using a mix of debt and equity to ensure cash flow stability with growth.
- Currently, the company prefers debt as a cheaper option compared to equity and does not plan to dilute equity for vessel additions.
- Future capex and vessel additions will depend on reasonable pricing opportunities maintaining return on capital employed (ROCE) and return on equity (ROE).
- The company expects to continue capex roughly in the range of INR 150 crores per year based on opportunities.
- Debt levels have increased due to recent vessel additions, but the debt-to-equity ratio is maintained similar to last year.
- The company is comfortable adding a few more vessels through debt if required to meet local demand.
- No explicit mention of new fundraising plans but expansion will likely involve a prudent mix of debt and equity depending on opportunities and maintaining financial ratios.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- The company consistently looks for good capex opportunities to maintain or improve returns on capital employed.
- Capex depends entirely on reasonable-priced opportunities that align with maintaining current return ratios.
- In recent years, the company has invested around INR 150 crores annually in capex.
- Going forward, similar levels of capex investment are expected to continue.
- There is a focus on adding vessels to increase logistics capacity, with debt preferred over equity dilution for funding such expansions.
- The company may also consider producing bitumen on its own in the near future, indicating potential forward integration.
- Expansion plans will be a mix of debt and equity to ensure cash flows are not impacted by growth.
- No dilution of equity is planned currently; debt is the favored mode for financing asset additions.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- The company projects volume growth of 15% to 20% annually in the coming years.
- Volume target for FY25 is set at 6 lakh metric tons, a 20% year-on-year increase.
- Revenue growth is expected to be around 15% to 20%, provided commodity rates remain stable.
- They aim to double the volume over the next 2 to 3 years.
- Capacity enhancement through adding vessels and logistics advantages will support this growth.
- The company plans capex around INR 150 crores annually, depending on opportunities, to maintain and expand infrastructure.
- EBITDA per ton is expected to improve to around INR 3,800 to 3,900 in FY25 and FY26.
- The market demand and infrastructure projects ensure sustained volume growth with limited challenges foreseen.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company expects a revenue growth of around 15% to 20% in volume and turnover for FY25, assuming stable rates.
- EBITDA per metric ton is projected to increase from INR 3,625 to approximately INR 3,800–3,900 in FY25 and FY26, indicating improved profitability.
- The company anticipates maintaining strong EBITDA margins around 8.3% and PAT margins around 5.13%.
- Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) and Return on Equity (ROE) are expected to be maintained or improved, with historical figures between 20% to 25%.
- With increased utilization of own vessels and expanded fleet, greater operational efficiency and volume growth are expected.
- The firm plans to continue strategic capex around INR 150 crores annually to capitalize on market opportunities without diluting equity, supporting sustainable earnings growth.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The company has received a significant order of 1,92,000 metric tons from HPCL, BPCL, and IOCL.
- As of the current quarter, about 60,000 tons have already been supplied to these PSUs.
- The entire order volume is expected to be completed within the current financial year (FY25).
- Orders are supplied on a continuous, regular basis as per requirements.
- The company maintains a strong order pipeline with expectations of sustainable long-term growth.
- There is ongoing focus on infrastructure activity and market trends supporting robust order inflow.
- No specific total pending orderbook value mentioned, but active orders and pipeline indicate healthy demand.
