Alicon Castalloy Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

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fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- For FY'25, Alicon Castalloy Limited is planning a significant capex of around Rs. 150 crore, primarily for new projects and maintenance. - Previous discussions indicated a capex of Rs. 250-300 crore associated with Rs. 700 crore incremental business, likely funded through a combination of internal accruals and debt. - Finance cost rose by 27% year-on-year in Q4FY24 due to increased borrowings and higher interest rates, suggesting existing utilization of debt facilities. - There is no explicit mention of planned equity fundraise in the provided transcript. - The company is focusing on controlling investments and improving working capital efficiency to support ROCE targets, indicating a preference for optimizing internal resources. Hence, while increased debt is implied to support capex and growth, there is no clear indication of immediate equity fundraising plans.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- FY24-25 capex is around Rs. 150 crore, focused on new machining capacities, infrastructure, and automation to support high volumes from key clients like JLR e-Axle and PSA. - Capex includes both growth and maintenance investments (Rs. 250-300 crore mentioned for Rs. 700 crore incremental business). - Major capex this year due to building infrastructure for new projects, with less requirement for huge capex in the next 2-3 years. - Focus on automation to control rising manpower costs. - Capacity expansion planned with around 50,000 tonnage capacity, utilization currently ~65-70%, with scope to go up to 85-90%. - New technology adoption like friction stir welding expected to begin benefiting from Q3 FY25. - Ongoing investments to support a ramp-up in passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle segments including hybrids and EVs.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Alicon expects around 15% revenue growth in FY24-25, increasing total income from Rs. 1,560 crore to Rs. 1,800 crore. - By FY25-26, revenue is projected to surpass Rs. 2,200 crore, implying a CAGR of over 16% for three years. - Growth driven by new product SOPs, new customers, and deferred volumes from FY24 contributing to FY25 revenues. - Passenger vehicle segment expected to grow, with cylinder heads for Maruti and Stellantis ramping up volumes significantly. - Positive outlook for 2-wheelers, especially with increasing volumes ahead of elections and shift from EV to ICE products. - Commercial vehicle segment expected to grow due to infrastructure spending and urbanization trends. - Global business contribution increased (28% in Q4 FY24 vs 21% previous year), with new long-term packages from Daimler starting 2026. - Hybrid and ICE vehicle content to remain significant alongside EV, supporting diverse growth avenues.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Alicon targets revenue of over Rs. 2,200 crores by FY 2025-26, reflecting a CAGR of over 16% over three years. - Expect around 15% revenue growth in FY24-25, moving from Rs. 1,560 crore to Rs. 1,800 crore. - EBITDA margin improved to 14% in Q4FY24 and is expected to sustain or improve, with a target to maintain around 14% for FY25 and FY26. - PAT grew by 19% YoY in FY24 and is expected to increase further with margin expansion and revenue growth. - Earnings growth backed by ramp-up in key passenger vehicle clients and higher value-added products, including hybrids and EV components. - Capex planned around Rs. 250-300 crores over the next two years to support incremental Rs. 700 crores business, ensuring capacity expansion and automation for margin improvement. - Operating leverage and improved working capital efficiencies expected to drive enhanced returns and EPS growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current order book stands at around Rs. 9,000 crores to Rs. 9,150 crores, spread over 6 years till FY'28-'29. - Order bookings in FY'23-'24 were about Rs. 770 crores. - New business order inflow expected at Rs. 1,200 crores for FY'24-'25. - Major customers contributing to the order book include Jaguar (10-15%), Toyota, PSA (Stellantis), Maruti Suzuki, Danfoss, and JLR. - EV segment constitutes about 30% of the Rs. 9,000 crore order book. - Growth opportunities exist with hybrid vehicles, cylinder heads for passenger vehicles, and structural parts. - Orders from commercial vehicles constitute about 20% of sales, mostly from global markets. - Ongoing addition of new orders driven by PV segment with ramp-up from Maruti, JLR, Toyota, PSA, and others. - Supply to Maruti includes cylinder heads and prospective hybrid vehicle parts.