Alicon Castalloy Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

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fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There is no specific mention of any current or planned fundraising through equity in the call. - The company is planning a CAPEX of around Rs. 90 crore in FY24, financed likely through internal accruals and existing resources. - The focus is on debt reduction, with an estimated Rs. 70-80 crore reduction in net debt over the next two years. - Interest costs increased due to past interest rate hikes but are expected to stabilize; efforts are ongoing to reduce finance costs. - No discussions of new debt fundraising were highlighted; emphasis is on managing working capital and improving cash flows. - ESOP costs will be significant only for the current year and reduce considerably next year, improving overall cash flow. - Overall, no explicit plans for fresh fundraising via debt or equity were disclosed as of Q1 FY24.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Capex target of around Rs. 90 crore planned for FY24; Rs. 15.6 crore already deployed in Q1 FY24. - Focus on automation with a detailed roadmap assessing areas for full or partial automation to improve process efficiency, product quality, and cost benefits. - Installation of captive solar plants: - India plant commissioned, expected to contribute energy savings of Rs. 4-5 crore per year starting Q2. - European plant installation to complete in Q3, smaller savings expected (~Rs. 8-10 lakh per year). - Investments aimed at increasing sales per machine by pursuing bigger and more complex parts and multiple tooling solutions. - Development and ramp-up of new parts and projects with OEMs including EV, structural, autonomous driving, and e-highway segments. - Strategic focus on expanding product portfolio, new customer additions, and shifting business from China to India for key customers like Tata AutoComp.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Alicon aims to achieve revenue of over ₹2,200 crore by FY 2025-26, up from an earlier estimate of ₹2,000 crore, implying a CAGR of over 16% over three years. - For FY24, the company targets around ₹1,600 crore in revenue, with significant ramp-up in H2 from new projects like JLR, Toyota, PSA, and Maruti Suzuki. - New orders and product launches (e.g., eAxle for JLR in 2025-26, battery housings, and defense parts) are expected to drive volume growth. - Shift business from China to India (e.g., with TATA AutoComp) is adding to order book and volume prospects. - Expansion into new areas like defense and on-road charging, with 52% of orders from newer technologies, supports medium-term growth. - Continuous product mix improvement from two-wheelers towards passenger and commercial vehicles supports margin and volume growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Alicon Castalloy projects revenue of over Rs. 1,600 crore for FY24, with a target of Rs. 2,200 crore by FY25-26, reflecting a CAGR of over 16%. - EBIT margins are expected to improve, aiming to reach around 14% by FY25-26 from 12.2% in Q1FY24, driven by better product mix, cost savings, and scale benefits. - The company anticipates EBITDA margin expansion supported by automation, stabilization of new projects, and shift to higher value-added products. - PAT for Q1FY24 was Rs. 9.5 crore; stable margins and improved volumes should help grow profits over the medium term. - EPS growth is expected alongside rising revenues and margins, supported by new orders, ramp-up in production, and business wins in EV, defense, and structural parts. - The company remains cautiously optimistic due to external risks like global economic conditions but plans to revise guidance upwards based on ongoing order traction.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Alicon Castalloy Limited's order book is strong, supported by new orders and customer discussions, indicating growth opportunities. - New orders added in Q1 FY24 include 17 new parts from 11 customers, with 10 parts for international and 7 for domestic business. - Defense orders include ongoing supply to CVRDE (Arjun tank road wheels) and cylinder heads for BEML defense trucks, with new larger tenders quoted for the next 3-4 years. - The order sizes for defense are indicated to be roughly in the Rs. 15 crore to Rs. 20 crore range per year. - Orders from new technology areas constitute approximately 52% of the orders. - The company expects to reach revenues of Rs. 1,600 crore in FY24 driven by order execution, with major ramp-up in H2 from clients like Toyota, PSA, JLR, and Maruti Suzuki. - A Rs. 90 crore order was received related to Friction Stir Welding technology. - Discussions with OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers indicate potential for further order growth, including opportunities arising from business shifting from China to India.