Alicon Castalloy Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

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fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There is no explicit mention of any current or planned new fundraising through equity in the call. - A new ESOP scheme involving 300,000 shares has been approved for future employee incentives but not yet granted; this is for retaining technical and senior talent, not an equity raise. - On debt, the company is focused on reducing its debt levels rather than raising new debt. - Management expects a debt reduction of Rs. 25-35 crore for the full year. - Interest costs increased due to higher rates and utilization but are expected to decline as debt reduces. - CAPEX plans for FY24 are around Rs. 85-90 crore, funded through existing cash flows and operational cash generation, not new fundraising. - Overall, the company aims to improve cash flow, repay debt, and manage costs without seeking fresh debt or equity financing in the near term.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Alicon Castalloy Limited has planned a full-year CAPEX of approximately Rs. 85 to Rs. 90 crore for FY24. - Around 50% of this CAPEX was already deployed in the first half of the year. - The CAPEX is primarily aimed at installing capacities for new businesses and supporting growth. - Some investments include adding new machines, including a larger size machine in European operations to manufacture parts up to 2 meters in length. - There is also a plan to install in-house capacity for high pressure die casting production, transitioning from contract manufacturing. - The company is focusing on automation and process improvements to mitigate rising manpower costs. - Management indicated ongoing and future CAPEX aligned with growth plans, new technologies, and expanding product portfolio.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Alicon Castalloy expects 10%-12% revenue growth for FY24, translating to approximately Rs. 1540-1570 crore. - Growth driven by new product launches, SOPs (Start of Production) from new customers, and increased volumes, especially in Q3 and Q4. - New businesses are projected to contribute about 45% of total revenue, with 55% from existing business. - Volumes growth is expected around 15%-16% including a 4% positive impact from aluminum price stabilization. - The company anticipates strong volume ramps in key customers like Maruti, Toyota, PSA, Tata Motors, and Dana. - For FY25-26, Alicon targets revenues over Rs. 2200 crore with a CAGR of over 16% over 3 years. - Increased global exports and EV-related component sales (currently 7% of revenues) underpin future growth. - Balanced strategy includes both in-house manufacturing (70%) and increased outsourcing (30%) to support scalability.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Alicon Castalloy targets revenue growth of 10%-12% for FY24, aiming Rs. 1,540 to Rs. 1,570 crore. - The company plans a strong CAGR of over 16% to reach Rs. 2,200 crore revenue by FY25-26. - EBITDA margins are expected to improve, targeting around 14% by FY25-26; Q2 FY24 adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.3%. - Profit improvement is anticipated with reducing ESOP costs and managing increasing manpower and interest costs. - EPS growth will benefit from margin expansion and volume growth driven by new business SOPs contributing 40-45% sales in Q3. - Debt reduction plans of Rs. 25-35 crore annually aim to lower interest expenses, supporting profitability. - The mix shift towards EV and export markets is expected to support better margins and earnings growth over the medium term.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- New business orders contribute around 45% of expected revenue for FY24; 55% from regular business. - Orders are fully received for new businesses; no reliance on discussions or tentative deals, ensuring safety in forecasts. - Significant ramp-up expected in Q3 and Q4 from new SOPs, including Maruti, Toyota, and PSA, with new parts adding roughly 40-45% to Q3 sales. - Several new parts added this quarter: 9 new parts from 5 customers (8 international, 1 domestic), including EV/carbon-neutral and ICE segments. - Discussions ongoing with major global customers on advanced parts like eAxle Housing, though names disclosed only after final orders or LOIs. - Order pipeline is strong and new product developments are expected to support growth and margin improvement. - Expansion through introduction of new technologies and new customers is part of the growth strategy.