Alpex Solar Ltd
Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis
Electrical Equipment
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 1margin: Category 2orderbook: Yes
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company targets a doubling of revenues from approximately Rs. 1,800-2,000 crores in FY’26 to Rs. 3,600-4,000 crores in FY’27, implying a 2x growth.
- EBITDA margins are expected to improve to around 28%-30% in FY’27, up from current levels.
- Operating Profit Margin (OPM) is targeted at 30% for FY’27.
- Profit After Tax (PAT) margin could reach around 16%-17% or even higher.
- Growth is expected to be driven by vertical integration with in-house cell production and increased module capacities (3.6 GW modules and 2.2 GW cells by FY’27).
- The company expects robust growth in earnings fueled by capacity expansion and efficient production (e.g., adopting G12R cell technology).
- Management emphasizes steady, safe growth with strong internal accruals supporting expansion, maintaining prudent financial discipline.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- As of September 30, the announced order book position is approximately Rs. 1800 crore.
- The current order book, including open orders yet to be executed in the second half, is estimated around Rs. 1600 to Rs. 1700 crore.
- The company has already received Rs. 1800 crore in new orders in the first half of the financial year.
- Management indicates confidence in securing a strong order book for the next year with several orders expected to be announced soon.
- The running order inflow suggests the company is on track to exceed earlier guidance of Rs. 1500 crore for the year by a substantial margin.
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company plans to fund its capacity expansion primarily through internal accruals, generating about Rs. 25 crores EBITDA monthly, expected to increase with cell production.
- There is no immediate need to raise funds via equity or large bank loans.
- If needed, a small loan of Rs. 40-50 crores could be obtained.
- Peak debt is estimated not to exceed Rs. 325-350 crores in FY’27 for expansion activities.
- Working capital limits will increase from around Rs. 115 crores currently to an estimated Rs. 300 crores in FY’27.
- Overall, liquidity is comfortable with no concerns despite higher inventories and receivables due to expansion.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- The company is undertaking a significant capacity expansion, including a 2.2 GW solar cell manufacturing line coming up in two phases (1.4 GW and 0.8 GW), with the first phase expected to be operational from February-March.
- An additional 1.2 GW solar module capacity line is expected to be fully operational by December.
- Another 1.2 GW module capacity adjacent to the cell factory in Kosi is planned for the next financial year.
- The total upcoming capacity will be 3.6 GW for modules and 2.2 GW for cells by the next financial year.
- CAPEX is being funded largely from internal accruals, with EBITDA of approximately Rs. 25 crores monthly.
- Peak debt related to expansion is estimated around Rs. 325-350 crores.
- The company is also investing in aluminum frame manufacturing and forming joint ventures for junction boxes to insulate profits.
- No current plans for backward integration into ingots or wafers due to policy and capital intensity constraints; decisions will follow favorable policy changes.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- The company targets a 2x growth trajectory, aiming to double revenue from around Rs. 780 crores initially to approximately Rs. 3200 crores by FY’27.
- FY’26 revenue is estimated around Rs. 1800 to Rs. 2000 crores, with expectations of reaching Rs. 3600 to Rs. 4000 crores in FY’27.
- A 2.2 GW solar cell manufacturing capacity will be operational by FY’27, providing significant growth impetus and insulating business from competition.
- Module capacity will increase to 3.6 GW by FY’27, supporting scaling volume production.
- The firm plans to sustain 2x growth year-on-year and expand capacities further if market demand favors.
- Emphasis on vertical integration, including in-house cell production with upcoming G12R cell technology to boost efficiency and margins.
- Conservative and prudent management approach prioritizes safe and sustainable rapid growth.
