Alpex Solar Ltd

Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Electrical Equipment

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 1margin: Category 2orderbook: Yes
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company targets a doubling of revenues from approximately Rs. 1,800-2,000 crores in FY’26 to Rs. 3,600-4,000 crores in FY’27, implying a 2x growth. - EBITDA margins are expected to improve to around 28%-30% in FY’27, up from current levels. - Operating Profit Margin (OPM) is targeted at 30% for FY’27. - Profit After Tax (PAT) margin could reach around 16%-17% or even higher. - Growth is expected to be driven by vertical integration with in-house cell production and increased module capacities (3.6 GW modules and 2.2 GW cells by FY’27). - The company expects robust growth in earnings fueled by capacity expansion and efficient production (e.g., adopting G12R cell technology). - Management emphasizes steady, safe growth with strong internal accruals supporting expansion, maintaining prudent financial discipline.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- As of September 30, the announced order book position is approximately Rs. 1800 crore. - The current order book, including open orders yet to be executed in the second half, is estimated around Rs. 1600 to Rs. 1700 crore. - The company has already received Rs. 1800 crore in new orders in the first half of the financial year. - Management indicates confidence in securing a strong order book for the next year with several orders expected to be announced soon. - The running order inflow suggests the company is on track to exceed earlier guidance of Rs. 1500 crore for the year by a substantial margin.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company plans to fund its capacity expansion primarily through internal accruals, generating about Rs. 25 crores EBITDA monthly, expected to increase with cell production. - There is no immediate need to raise funds via equity or large bank loans. - If needed, a small loan of Rs. 40-50 crores could be obtained. - Peak debt is estimated not to exceed Rs. 325-350 crores in FY’27 for expansion activities. - Working capital limits will increase from around Rs. 115 crores currently to an estimated Rs. 300 crores in FY’27. - Overall, liquidity is comfortable with no concerns despite higher inventories and receivables due to expansion.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- The company is undertaking a significant capacity expansion, including a 2.2 GW solar cell manufacturing line coming up in two phases (1.4 GW and 0.8 GW), with the first phase expected to be operational from February-March. - An additional 1.2 GW solar module capacity line is expected to be fully operational by December. - Another 1.2 GW module capacity adjacent to the cell factory in Kosi is planned for the next financial year. - The total upcoming capacity will be 3.6 GW for modules and 2.2 GW for cells by the next financial year. - CAPEX is being funded largely from internal accruals, with EBITDA of approximately Rs. 25 crores monthly. - Peak debt related to expansion is estimated around Rs. 325-350 crores. - The company is also investing in aluminum frame manufacturing and forming joint ventures for junction boxes to insulate profits. - No current plans for backward integration into ingots or wafers due to policy and capital intensity constraints; decisions will follow favorable policy changes.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company targets a 2x growth trajectory, aiming to double revenue from around Rs. 780 crores initially to approximately Rs. 3200 crores by FY’27. - FY’26 revenue is estimated around Rs. 1800 to Rs. 2000 crores, with expectations of reaching Rs. 3600 to Rs. 4000 crores in FY’27. - A 2.2 GW solar cell manufacturing capacity will be operational by FY’27, providing significant growth impetus and insulating business from competition. - Module capacity will increase to 3.6 GW by FY’27, supporting scaling volume production. - The firm plans to sustain 2x growth year-on-year and expand capacities further if market demand favors. - Emphasis on vertical integration, including in-house cell production with upcoming G12R cell technology to boost efficiency and margins. - Conservative and prudent management approach prioritizes safe and sustainable rapid growth.