Alpex Solar Ltd

Q4 FY27 Earnings Call Analysis

Electrical Equipment

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 1margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The majority of the ongoing and planned CAPEX, including the solar cell phase two and module expansion, will be funded through internal accruals. - The company does not have plans to raise fresh equity in the capital markets again. - A portion of the CAPEX for the solar cell project (total Rs. 825 crores) is planned to be funded through term loans of Rs. 400 crores, with the balance Rs. 425 crores from internal accruals. - Any small shortfall in funds may be met by raising a small amount of debt from bankers. - The company has already plugged in any potential shortfall and does not foresee going back to the equity market.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Total CAPEX for solar cell manufacturing (2.2 GW Topcon cell line) is Rs. 825 crores, including soft costs and IDC. - Hard costs for the cell project are around Rs. 750 crores. - Funding plan includes Rs. 400 crores from term loans and Rs. 425 crores from internal accruals. - No immediate plans to raise additional capital from markets; any shortfall may be met via internal accruals or small debt. - Expansion includes setting up of a brand-new, modern G12R size cell line (1.4 GW first phase and 0.8 GW second phase). - Potential future capacity expansion: up to 2.4 GW additional module capacity at the new factory in Kosi based on market visibility. - Expansion also in the aluminum frame business with new capacities. - Strategic investments include backward integration into solar cells and aluminum frames to improve margins and competitiveness.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Company expects to maintain a 2x growth guidance from the base turnover of Rs. 750 crores, targeting around Rs. 1,500 crores initially and aiming for Rs. 3,000 crores next year (FY26) as per repeated mentions. - The Rs. 1,900 crore order book is expected to be executed within 6-7 months, indicating strong order inflow. - Rapid volume and capacity expansion underway, including 3.6 GW module capacity and 2.2 GW solar cell capacity by FY27. - New cell manufacturing starting from July FY26 (~1.2 GW capacity initially) anticipated to boost margins and strengthen order book. - Growth driven by increasing industry volumes and new market segments such as Commercial & Industrial (C&I). - Conservative approach on order sizes (preferring Rs. 200-300 crore orders) to manage pricing risks. - Potential for export market growth as capacity and policies develop further.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Alpex Solar has shown significant growth with turnover, EBITDA, and PAT increasing more than 3x in the current year compared to last year. - The company expects around 2x growth from last year's turnover of Rs. 750 crores to Rs. 1500 crores, achieving Rs. 1500 crores in nine months itself. - Future revenue for next year is guided around Rs. 3000 crores, driven by strong order inflow and expanded capacities. - Planned solar cell manufacturing (2.2 GW capacity) expected to boost margins with PAT margins potentially reaching 25% or more. - EBITDA margins are expected to expand significantly with integration of own cell and aluminum frame manufacturing. - Rapid capacity expansion (3.6 GW solar module capacity by FY 2026-27) and backward integration will enhance profitability and operational efficiency. - Strong internal accruals support CAPEX, minimizing need for fresh capital raising. - Utilization levels expected at 75-80%, with new cell lines reaching 90-95% capacity quickly post commissioning.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current order book stands at approximately Rs. 1,900 crores as of Q3 FY26. - The Rs. 1,900 crores order book primarily covers around 6-7 months of execution timeline. - Orders are mostly repetitive from similar customers, ensuring steady demand. - The company prefers smaller orders of Rs. 200-300 crores rather than very large orders (~Rs. 800 crores) to manage pricing and execution risks. - With the upcoming start of in-house solar cell production, the order book is expected to strengthen further. - Management confirms order inflows are robust, supporting growth guidance of 2x revenue from previous turnover (Rs. 750 crores to approx Rs. 3,000 crores next year). - Orders are expected to cover full year FY26, aligning with company’s expansion and execution plans.