Anupam Rasayan India Ltd
Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Chemicals & Petrochemicals
fundraise: Yescapex: Norevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
๐ฐfundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- No new external financing or incremental capex is planned for the next two years; the company plans to utilize available cash of around INR180 crores to complete ongoing capex.
- Prefential allotment proceeds (preferential shares and warrants) worth INR39 million are expected to come in over the next 12 to 18 months, which will be used to repay debt, especially long-term debt.
- The company aims to use operating cash flow and these proceeds to reduce net debt and manage the balance sheet efficiently.
- There is no indication of fresh fundraising via new debt or equity beyond the already planned preferential allotment and utilization of existing cash reserves.
- Management remains cautious and prefers to see business performance for a quarter or two before providing further guidance on financial moves.
๐๏ธcapex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- The company has a total announced capex of INR 670 crores, out of which INR 482 crores have been utilized as of March 31, 2024.
- The balance capex (around INR 180 crores) will be incurred in the coming quarters, with plants expected to be commercialized by the first half of FY2025.
- There is no plan for any new or incremental capex beyond the existing INR 670 crores plan.
- Future capex guidance for FYโ25 is around INR 180 crores (balance from existing plan) plus maintenance capex.
- For FYโ26, the capex will primarily be maintenance capex with no new major capital investments planned.
- The existing capex is expected to support a peak revenue potential of around INR 3,000 crores.
- No external financing is required for this capex as the cash reserves suffice.
๐revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- CY'25 is expected to show far better growth than CY'24; CY'24 is better than CY'23.
- First two quarters of FYโ25 may be tepid, with stronger growth anticipated in the third and fourth quarters.
- Agrochem segment expected to face headwinds initially but will contribute to growth along with polymer and pharma segments.
- Volumes for CY'25 are expected to be higher than CY'23 on existing orders, indicating a catch-up.
- Peak revenue potential from current plants (including new fluorination block) is around INR 3,000 crores.
- Revenue from LOIs is scaling: ~INR 200 crores in FYโ24; expected INR 350+ crores in FYโ25.
- Order book of about INR 9,000 crores spread over 5-7 years implies a steady addition of roughly INR 1,300-1,400 crores yearly.
- Capacity utilization currently around 70-75%; revenue potential roughly INR 1,600-1,700 crores without new capex.
๐margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- FY25 expected to be a year of growth, driven primarily by the Polymer and Pharmaceutical segments.
- Pharma segmentโs revenue contribution increased from 4% in FY23 to 9% in FY24; expected to reach double digits in FY25.
- Polymer segment currently in single digits but anticipated to reach double digits in FY25.
- Margins expected to remain healthy around 26%+ EBITDA margin on a stand-alone basis.
- Revenue growth may be cautious in H1 FY25 with stronger growth in H2 FY25.
- Total peak revenue potential is around INR 3,000 crores considering full utilization of current and upcoming capacity (including the fluorination block).
- Incremental capex limited (~INR180 crores for FY25), mainly for completion of existing plans; FY26 capex expected to be maintenance only.
- Working capital normalization expected over next 18-24 months, improving return ratios.
๐orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The current order book (LOIs) is just under INR 9,000 crores.
- Average revenue run rate from this order book, considering an average contract duration of 5-7 years, is estimated around INR 1,300 to 1,400 crores annually.
- LOIs take approximately 18-24 months to commercialize after signing.
- Post-commercialization, full volume ramp-up takes an additional 18-24 months.
- For FY24, revenue from LOIs was slightly under INR 200 crores.
- FY25 LOI revenue is expected around INR 350 crores, with potential for INR 400 crores.
- Contracts include long-term take-or-pay clauses with minimum offtake guarantees.
- Flexibility exists in contracts for compensation, price adjustments, or product mix changes in case of delays.
- Business expects growth in LOI commercializations and volume ramp-up over the next 2-3 years.
