Apar Industries Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Electrical Equipment

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company has issued a postal ballot notice dated September 28, 2023, seeking shareholder approval for issuance of securities, indicating a potential fundraising through equity. - However, management stated they are not in a position to comment on any fund raise due to regulatory restrictions. - No specific details on the size, timing, or nature (debt or equity) of any future fundraising were disclosed. - Questions related to guidance, projections, forecasts, or funding requirements were declined during the call, adhering to compliance around publicity due to the ongoing postal ballot. - Therefore, while an equity issuance process is underway, details on any current or future fundraising through debt or equity remain undisclosed publicly as of October 26, 2023.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- APAR Industries has spent about ₹150 Crores on capex till September FY2024, mainly in the cable and conductor divisions. - They plan to spend ₹350-400 Crores by the end of FY2024, expected to be close to this target in H2. - The current capex will provide capacity for the next year; further guidance on future capex will be shared later. - Capex lines for cable manufacturing have been commissioned and are progressing on schedule. - The capex plan is based on expected new tenders and customer requirements, with a full ramp-up expected by FY2025. - A ₹400 Crores capex can generate about ₹4000-5000 Crores revenue at base level (asset turnover ratio ~10-12 times). - There is also mention of strategic focus on supply for US markets, but no specific future strategic investments detailed.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Long-term demand remains strong, driven by global renewable energy goals and grid upgrades, especially in the US and Europe. - Export markets, notably the US, continue to be strategic with significant opportunities from investments like the $3.5 billion US grid reconductoring plan. - The current short-term de-inventorization in Western markets is tactical; fundamental demand remains intact. - Capex of ~400 Crores this year aims to incrementally expand capacity, with full ramp-up expected next year, supporting 10-12 times revenue growth potential (~4000-5000 Crores). - The cable business is growing steadily, with a 16% YoY revenue increase and expanding domestic footprint (now in 17 states). - Wire business growth aligns with increased market penetration and strong distribution expansion. - Oil division volume growth is robust at 18% YoY, supported by strong transformer oil demand. - Overall, APAR anticipates continued volume and revenue growth driven by premiumization, market expansion, and infrastructure investments.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- APAR Industries expects sustained long-term growth driven by increasing electricity demand and renewable energy adoption globally, targeting a rise in electricity’s share of the energy mix from 20% to 40% by 2050. - Export growth, particularly in the US market, is seen as a major opportunity with 26% of revenues currently from the US and ongoing engagement with utilities and EPC players. - Recent capex of about Rs. 400 Crores is expected to complete by FY2024 end, enabling revenue expansion of Rs. 4000-5000 Crores and full plant ramp-up in FY2025. - EBITDA per metric ton continues to grow due to premiumization of products and higher export mix, with a 31% YoY increase in H1 FY2024. - Short-term tactical effects like de-inventorization may temper near-term growth but not change long-term fundamentals. - Company maintains cautious stance on specific forward guidance due to market dynamics and regulatory constraints on disclosures.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The conductor order book stands at approximately ₹5,900 Crores. - Around 51% of the conductor order book is from exports, with the remaining from the domestic market. - The cable order book is around ₹1,000 Crores. - For conductors, the execution period of order books is typically about 6 to 7 months. - Cable orders have a much shorter execution cycle, with less than 10% of the cable order book extending into the next year. - New conductor orders in Q2 included about 43% export orders. - Execution timelines indicate some deliveries stretching into the next financial year.