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Apollo Pipes LtdQ2 FY23

Apollo Pipes Ltd Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 482P/E: 307.4Market Cap: ₹2.3K CrSector: Industrial Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 2

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • Apollo Pipes targets a 25% volume growth CAGR over the next 3 to 4 years, aiming to increase capacity utilization to 75% around that time.
  • Revenue is expected to reach INR 2,800 crores when 75% utilization is achieved, projected in 3 to 4 years.
  • The company plans to accelerate revenue growth at a CAGR of approximately 35% for the next 4 years, driven by capacity expansion and market penetration.
  • Volume growth is fueled by doubling capacity to 286,000 metric tons within 3-4 years, including new greenfield plants in Maharashtra, East India, and South India.
  • Distribution channel expansion will focus on deeper penetration of existing network and selective addition of new distributors to scale revenues from INR 300 crores to INR 1,500 crores in select markets over 3 years.
  • The company expects steady EBITDA per kg at INR 13-16, improving with value-added products and new plants.
  • Aggressive sales strategy and brand building, including celebrity endorsement, aim to capture shifting market share from unorganized to organized sector.

Margin guidance

Category 2
  • Apollo Pipes targets a 25% volume CAGR and aims to ramp up revenue growth to a 35% CAGR over the next 3-4 years, driven by capacity expansion to 286,000 tons.
  • EBITDA per kg is expected between INR 13-14 for the current year, improving as new plants (e.g., Dadri-2) come online, lifting overall margins.
  • The company plans INR 500 crore capex over 3 years, funded 55% by equity infusion and 45% internal accruals, with a goal to maintain debt-free status.
  • ROCE is targeted at 25%+ within 3-4 years once utilization hits 75%, supported by working capital efficiencies and aggressive sales strategies.
  • Brand-building efforts, including hiring Amitabh Bachchan, and a switch to a cash-and-carry model are expected to improve market share and profitability.
  • Margin pressures in the near term due to aggressive discounts and higher ad spends are expected to reverse as scale and plant utilization improve.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • Apollo Pipes Limited plans a capex of INR 500 crores over the next 3 years for capacity expansion.
  • Funding mix for this capex is targeted to be approximately 55% through equity infusion and 45% through internal cash flows.
  • Earlier in the quarter, equity infusion of INR 2.6 billion was announced from promoters and some non-promoter investors.
  • About 25% of the equity infusion amount has already been infused; the remaining 75% will be infused as required.
  • The company aims to remain debt-free and plans no new borrowing for this capex.
  • Internal cash flows are estimated based on 70%-80% operational cash flow to EBITDA ratio and 3 years of projected consolidated EBITDA.
  • The capex funding strategy and equity infusion support aggressive revenue growth and ROCE targets.

Order book

The transcript does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders for Apollo Pipes Limited. However, some relevant points related to sales and market expansion include: - Apollo Pipes is focusing on aggressive sales strategies to capture market share from unorganized players. - The company reported its best-ever sales volume of 21,000 metric tons in Q1 FY '24, a 27% increase versus the previous year. - Expansion plans involve doubling capacity to 286,000 metric tons in the next 3 to 4 years. - The firm has tested markets across South, West, and East India, aiming to grow regional revenue from around INR 300-400 crores to INR 1,500 crores in the next 3 years. - Distribution network expansion is ongoing, with focus on deeper penetration through existing distributors and adding new distributors as needed. - No direct mention of specific order books or pending orders was made during the call.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Apollo Pipes plans a total capex of INR 500 crores over the next 3 to 4 years, aimed at capacity expansion of 2.86 lakh tons.
  • Dadri-2 expansion (greenfield plant) is on track to start production by Q4 FY '24 with investment around INR 100 crores; Tumkur brownfield expansion planned at around 25% capacity increase.
  • New greenfield plants targeted in Maharashtra (West India), South India (between Bangalore, Hosur, Hyderabad), and East India (Bengal, Assam, Orissa, Eastern UP) with approx. INR 135 crores each.
  • Capex to be funded through a mix of equity infusion (INR 260 crores pledged, 25% infused so far) and internal cash flows, targeting a 55:45 equity to internal accruals ratio.
  • Company plans to remain debt-free.
  • Capex phases depend on land acquisition and regulatory approvals; plant setup post-land acquisition is expected within 12 to 15 months.
  • Channel financing and distribution expansion are ongoing strategic initiatives to support volume growth.

How does Apollo Pipes Ltd rank vs peers in Industrial Products?

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