Arihant Superstructures Ltd
Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Realty
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company has an enabling resolution to raise up to ₹500 crores annually, renewed each year, but no specific immediate fundraising is planned.
- Any new capital raised through this route would be primarily for acquisition of new projects, not for debt repayment.
- Current debt is considered sustainable, with ₹156 crores secured loan and ₹262 crores unsecured loan as of June 30.
- Debt reduction is planned through internal accruals and surplus cash flows from ongoing projects rather than fresh fundraising.
- The company will decide on the timing and amount of equity dilution based on the right opportunity, not on a specific schedule.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Arihant Superstructures is planning significant capital investments focused on luxury villa projects, particularly the Arihant World Villa project, which involves a large land parcel of 76 acres at Chowk (25 acres acquired plus additional 51 acres).
- The company is investing around ₹250 crore in a resort and Gymkhana at Panvel, expected to yield a 15% IRR.
- There is a focus on developing constructed villas and annuity income assets, designed to provide strong IRR and long-term cash flows.
- The company expects to raise up to ₹500 crore via equity (enabling resolution renewed annually), with utilization based on opportunities; the villa project requires about ₹250 crore of this.
- New project launches worth ~₹900 crore are planned for FY24, including fresh projects at Shil Phata (Arihant Avanti) and others at Badlapur, Kharjat, Kalyan, and Panvel.
- Expansion of land bank to 217 acres (from 165 acres in March 2023) is complete, with all land planned for active development, not held idle.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- The company expects a strong CAGR growth of 25% to 30% year-on-year in sales from current levels.
- FY24 pre-sales target is approximately Rs. 1000 crores, with FY25 expected to reach Rs. 1300-1350 crores.
- New inventory launches planned total around Rs. 900 crores for FY24.
- Collections from sold projects expected to be around Rs. 660 crores over 2-3 years.
- Unsold value of ongoing projects stands at Rs. 1117 crores.
- Sales velocity in Q1 FY24 was Rs. 245 crores, anticipated to continue throughout the year.
- Total developable area across projects is ~17 million sq.ft., with a projected top-line of Rs. 9900 crores over 7 years.
- Approximately 75% of total sales expected within the first 5 years, balance thereafter.
- Villa segment and premium projects are expected to contribute higher margins and growth.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company expects pre-sales to reach Rs. 1000 crores in FY24 and Rs. 1300-1350 crores in FY25, indicating strong top-line growth.
- Consolidated revenue for Q1 FY24 grew 35% year-on-year, with EBITDA growing 38.7% and PAT up 45.8%.
- EBITDA margin slightly improved to 21.8% in Q1 FY24 from 21.3% in Q1 FY23, with PAT margin also rising.
- New premium projects like Arihant World Villa are expected to deliver EBITDA margins over 40%, higher than the average.
- The company targets average IRR of 30-35% and PAT margins of 20-25% on new projects, indicating sustainable profitability.
- Sales and collections velocity are expected to improve post external challenges affecting Q1 collections.
- Overall, the company aims for a CAGR growth of 25-30% in sales, supporting healthy earnings and margin expansion over the medium term.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The company has a developable area of approximately 17 million square feet.
- The total top-line expected from these projects is around ₹9,900 crore to be constructed over the next seven years.
- Approximately 75% of the sales (around ₹7,425 crore) are expected within the next five years.
- The remaining 25% will be generated in the subsequent two years (years 6 and 7).
- The unsold value of ongoing projects is approximately ₹1,117 crore.
- Collections expected from sold projects over the next 2-3 years amount to around ₹660 crore.
- The company aims for a CAGR growth of 25-30% year-on-year from current levels.
- Pre-sales guidance for FY24 is ₹1,000 crore, with FY25 expected to be ₹1,300-1,350 crore.
