Arihant Superstructures Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Realty

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company has an enabling resolution to raise up to ₹500 crores annually, renewed each year, but no specific immediate fundraising is planned. - Any new capital raised through this route would be primarily for acquisition of new projects, not for debt repayment. - Current debt is considered sustainable, with ₹156 crores secured loan and ₹262 crores unsecured loan as of June 30. - Debt reduction is planned through internal accruals and surplus cash flows from ongoing projects rather than fresh fundraising. - The company will decide on the timing and amount of equity dilution based on the right opportunity, not on a specific schedule.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Arihant Superstructures is planning significant capital investments focused on luxury villa projects, particularly the Arihant World Villa project, which involves a large land parcel of 76 acres at Chowk (25 acres acquired plus additional 51 acres). - The company is investing around ₹250 crore in a resort and Gymkhana at Panvel, expected to yield a 15% IRR. - There is a focus on developing constructed villas and annuity income assets, designed to provide strong IRR and long-term cash flows. - The company expects to raise up to ₹500 crore via equity (enabling resolution renewed annually), with utilization based on opportunities; the villa project requires about ₹250 crore of this. - New project launches worth ~₹900 crore are planned for FY24, including fresh projects at Shil Phata (Arihant Avanti) and others at Badlapur, Kharjat, Kalyan, and Panvel. - Expansion of land bank to 217 acres (from 165 acres in March 2023) is complete, with all land planned for active development, not held idle.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company expects a strong CAGR growth of 25% to 30% year-on-year in sales from current levels. - FY24 pre-sales target is approximately Rs. 1000 crores, with FY25 expected to reach Rs. 1300-1350 crores. - New inventory launches planned total around Rs. 900 crores for FY24. - Collections from sold projects expected to be around Rs. 660 crores over 2-3 years. - Unsold value of ongoing projects stands at Rs. 1117 crores. - Sales velocity in Q1 FY24 was Rs. 245 crores, anticipated to continue throughout the year. - Total developable area across projects is ~17 million sq.ft., with a projected top-line of Rs. 9900 crores over 7 years. - Approximately 75% of total sales expected within the first 5 years, balance thereafter. - Villa segment and premium projects are expected to contribute higher margins and growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company expects pre-sales to reach Rs. 1000 crores in FY24 and Rs. 1300-1350 crores in FY25, indicating strong top-line growth. - Consolidated revenue for Q1 FY24 grew 35% year-on-year, with EBITDA growing 38.7% and PAT up 45.8%. - EBITDA margin slightly improved to 21.8% in Q1 FY24 from 21.3% in Q1 FY23, with PAT margin also rising. - New premium projects like Arihant World Villa are expected to deliver EBITDA margins over 40%, higher than the average. - The company targets average IRR of 30-35% and PAT margins of 20-25% on new projects, indicating sustainable profitability. - Sales and collections velocity are expected to improve post external challenges affecting Q1 collections. - Overall, the company aims for a CAGR growth of 25-30% in sales, supporting healthy earnings and margin expansion over the medium term.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company has a developable area of approximately 17 million square feet. - The total top-line expected from these projects is around ₹9,900 crore to be constructed over the next seven years. - Approximately 75% of the sales (around ₹7,425 crore) are expected within the next five years. - The remaining 25% will be generated in the subsequent two years (years 6 and 7). - The unsold value of ongoing projects is approximately ₹1,117 crore. - Collections expected from sold projects over the next 2-3 years amount to around ₹660 crore. - The company aims for a CAGR growth of 25-30% year-on-year from current levels. - Pre-sales guidance for FY24 is ₹1,000 crore, with FY25 expected to be ₹1,300-1,350 crore.