Arihant Superstructures Ltd

Q4 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Realty

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 2orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There is no explicit confirmation of new fundraising through debt or equity in the transcript. - The company currently has a debt level of INR 290 crore and plans to marginally reduce it over the next 2 to 2.5 years. - Ashok Chhajer mentioned the possibility of joint development agreements (JDA) instead of outright land purchases, especially if fundraising plans do not go through. - There is "great interest" from leading institutions for fundraising, which would elevate the company to the next level, but no finalized fundraising has been announced. - The strategy involves a blend of asset-light models and outright acquisitions, indicating reliance on internal cash flows and joint ventures. - No definitive details were given about launching an immediate fundraising through debt or equity at this time.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Arihant Superstructures plans a blend of land acquisition models: asset-light (joint development agreements) and outright purchases, with 5-6 projects in the pipeline under asset-light model and 3-4 outright acquisitions planned soon. - The company aims to capitalise on internal cash flows and fast sales velocity to fund ongoing and future project acquisitions without heavy reliance on fundraising, although institutional interest and fundraising efforts are ongoing. - There is a strategic intent to double the land bank portfolio from 11.3 million sq.ft to approximately 20 million sq.ft over the next six years across 14 projects. - New project launches are planned: approximately 15 lakh sq.ft in Q4 and another 15-20 lakh sq.ft in Q1 of the next financial year are in the approval pipeline. - The company focuses on affordable and mid-income housing with innovative product launches to capture market demand and expand market share.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company sees a strong upcycle in the housing market for the next six years, supported by high demand and modest launches. - Pre-sales guidance for FY '22 remains unchanged, with targets already achieved. - New product innovations (e.g., β€˜O Factor’ with separate office rooms) will focus on affordable and mid-income housing to drive higher volumes. - The company aims to increase sales velocity significantly through both outright land acquisition and asset-light models like joint development agreements. - Planned launches include around 15 lakh sq.ft in Q4 FY '22 and 15-20 lakh sq.ft in Q1 FY '23. - Estimated total sales from ongoing and forthcoming projects is about INR 7,000 crore over the next 6-7 years, with a strong operating cash flow outlook of INR 2,700-2,800 crore. - With robust sales and increasing market share, the company anticipates quarter-to-quarter improvement in results and sustained volume growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- EBITDA margins have increased from 18.5% in FY ’21 to 20.8% in FY ’22, expected to inch upward with market price appreciation (7%-8% price rise forecasted). - PAT grew significantly, with a 125% YoY increase in Q3 FY ’22, and 1290% YoY increase in nine months period; margins expanded to 13.1%. - Total revenue for Q3 FY ’22 was INR 88.67 crore, a 20.5% YoY growth; EBITDA rose 24.6%; collections also increased by 70% YoY. - Ongoing and forthcoming projects valued at INR ~7,000 crore with operating cash flow of INR ~2,700-2,800 crore over 6-7 years, supporting steady income flow. - Company aims to maintain/increase EBITDA margins supported by price hikes and cost management; moderate growth expected rather than speculative doubling. - Market position strengthening with 10% market share in Navi Mumbai; further expansion in MMR expected to aid growth. - Overall, consistent growth and margin expansion trend with cautious optimism for future profitability.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Estimated sales value of ongoing and forthcoming projects is about INR 7,000 crore (including both ongoing and forthcoming). - Out of this, approximately INR 4,800 crore is from forthcoming projects and about INR 2,100 crore from ongoing projects. - The cost to complete these projects is estimated at around INR 4,200 crore. - Operating cash flows expected are in the range of INR 2,700 crore to INR 2,800 crore. - These projects are expected to be completed and generate revenue over the next 6 to 7 years.