Asahi Songwon Colors LtdQ1 FY23Chemicals & Petrochemicals

Asahi Songwon Colors Ltd

Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Revenue guidance

Category 3

→The Blue business is expected to remain a cash cow with no major capex; moderate growth around 10% is unlikely.
→Peak capacity turnover around INR 800 crores group-wide is possible, with expected revenue between INR 700-750 crores in 2-3 years after ramp-up.
→Chhatral facility external sales expected to reach INR 200 crores at peak.
→Dahej AZO dyes segment targeting to increase from INR ~45 crores to ~INR 90 crores in FY24, driven mainly by domestic sales and expanding yellow pigment capacity.
→Yellow pigments expected to dominate 70-75% of turnover for next 3 years, with capacity expansion underway.
→New small molecule API products (2-4) to be launched gradually; however, these won't significantly impact top-line immediately.
→Pregabalin remains key API product with plans for backward integration and approvals for export markets to improve margins and utilization over 3 years.
→Overall target is 15-17% EBITDA margins on normalized peak revenues.

Category 3

→The worst quarters are behind, with Q1 FY24 (April-June) expected better than Q4 FY23; no similar downturn anticipated again.
→Business is bottoming out with global supply chain inventory at lows; demand revival expected leading to recovery of cash cow (Blue business).
→Peak capacity turnover estimated around INR 800 crores on group basis, with more realistic INR 700-750 crores achievable, maintaining 15-17% EBITDA margins long term.
→AZO segment expected to grow from ~INR 41 crores to INR 90 crores in FY24, driven by increased volumes and new shifts.
→Chhatral plant to contribute INR 200 crores top-line (external sales) at peak, supporting backward integration and margin improvement in API segment.
→API business (dominated by pregabalin) expected to consolidate and grow via approvals for regulated markets over 3-5 years, introducing higher value products.
→Overall, confidence expressed for revenue and profit improvement in coming quarters and years, aiming for INR 1,000 crores turnover in medium term.

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Yes

→There was a suggestion for a smaller rights issue of INR 30-40 crores to improve liquidity; this has been considered internally by the team.
→No explicit confirmation of immediate fundraising via debt or equity was provided during the call.
→Management indicated no need to defer acquisitions or capital expenditures, implying sufficient current liquidity and no urgent requirement for fresh funding.
→Planned capex is limited to ongoing projects (Atlas Chhatral and ATC), totaling around INR 40 crores, after which the company intends to enter a consolidation phase lasting at least a year and a half with no new capex.
→Management expects to de-lever the balance sheet in a planned fashion post peak capex.
→No mention of new large-scale debt raising; existing debt peaks at INR 210 crores and is to be reduced afterward.

→No explicit mention of current or expected orderbook or pending orders is provided on page 28 or related pages.
→However, references indicate ongoing customer approvals and business ramp-ups:
→ - European and U.S. customers are in testing phases; it may take about six months for some to start orders (Page 27).
→ - Revival and increased demand expected from European customers such as Sun, Siegwerk, and Clariant (Page 15-18).
→ - Current business from European customers is minimal except for TTC, with around 90% sales in India for AZO dyes segment (Page 20).
→The company is confident of improved results in coming quarters and expects consolidation phase by second half of 2024 (Page 28).
→New product launches and expansions (Chhatral plant, Dahej yellow line expansion) will support future order growth (Pages 19-26).

Yes

→Current capex includes INR 70 crores investment in the Chhatral plant aimed at backward integration for the API business, expected to achieve around INR 200 crores external sales at peak.
→Additional capex of about INR 30 crores is planned for doubling AZO dye capacities, particularly yellow, adding approx. 1,200 tons capacity with INR 10-14 crores capex; expansion expected to complete within 8-9 months.
→No new capital expenditure planned beyond the two ongoing projects (Atlas Chhatral and ATC) for at least one to two years; company will enter a consolidation phase post-completion.
→Plans to invest in renewable energy (wind and solar) are mentioned but no significant capex is planned currently for these.
→Management is considering a smaller rights issue (INR 30-40 crores) to boost liquidity.
→Focus over the next 3-5 years is on ramping up multiple products at various locations, aiming for INR 1,000 crores revenue goal.

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