Ashiana Housing Ltd
Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Realty
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- Ashiana Housing plans to raise funds mainly through debentures or loans.
- They have a Rs. 225 crore investment platform tied up with IFC for some projects.
- Approval has been taken to raise secured debentures, similar to earlier ICICI-approved debentures.
- Construction finance may be utilized but will be a small part; most funding will be for land acquisition.
- Fundraising will be done as and when required for land acquisitions.
- Operating cash flows are strong, with over Rs. 150 crores of pre-tax cash flows from current projects in H1 FY25.
- No specific equity fundraising was mentioned; focus is on debt instruments and internal cash flows.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Ashiana Housing Limited is looking to deploy capital in Bhiwadi by acquiring land for at least one new project.
- The company has recently done land deals in Jaipur (expected closure early next quarter) and Bangalore (CPs expected mid next quarter).
- Bangalore is a new market for Ashiana, with a launch expected in 12-18 months due to setting up approvals, sales offices, and show flats.
- No active ongoing negotiations for new land in Gurgaon due to expensive land prices; focus is on other neighborhoods with commercial viability.
- The capital required for land acquisition will be raised as needed, mainly through loans, debentures, and a tied-up Rs. 225 crore platform with IFC.
- Construction finance is planned to be a small part of funding.
- The company will continue to use a mix of outright land purchases and joint development agreements (JDA) depending on risk appetite and returns.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- FY25 revenue expected around Rs. 700-750 crores, rising to about Rs. 1,100 crores in FY26 and Rs. 1,700 crores in FY27 (Page 14).
- Pre-sales guidance maintained at Rs. 2,000 crores for FY25 (Page 4, 10).
- Volume growth anticipated through project deliveries, including Ashiana Amarah, Nitara, Ekansh, Swarang, Amodh Phase-2, and Tarang in H2 FY25 (Page 7).
- Profit margins to improve from about 9% in FY25 to 12%-13% in FY26, expanding to approximately 20% from FY27 onwards (Page 10, 11, 14).
- Bhiwadi market outlook positive with consistent inventory clearance and plans to acquire new land for future projects (Page 15).
- Bangalore project launch expected in 12-18 months, signaling geographical expansion (Page 7, 11).
- Continued focus on senior living and new market entries like Jaipur, Bhiwadi to sustain growth (Page 9, 14).
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- FY25 revenues expected around Rs. 700-750 crores; rising to Rs. 1,100 crores in FY26 and Rs. 1,700 crores in FY27 (Page 14).
- EBITDA margins projected to increase from about 9% in FY25 to 12%-13% in FY26, expanding further to around 20% by FY27 (Pages 10 & 14).
- Profit margins anticipated to grow from approximately 9% PAT in FY25 to low teens (~12%-13%) in FY26 and 20% net profit margin from FY27 onwards (Pages 10 & 11).
- Operating cash flows remain strong with Rs. 150+ crores pre-tax cash flows in H1 FY25 (Page 10).
- Cumulative profits of about Rs. 2,000 crores expected from ongoing and future projects over FY24-30 (Page 14).
- Growth driven by scale-up, higher priced projects, and margin expansion from new project deliveries (Pages 10, 11, 14).
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Ashiana Housing Limited's expected revenues (orderbook) by financial year (slide 16 reference):
- FY25: Rs. 700-750 crores
- FY26: About Rs. 1,100 crores
- FY27: Around Rs. 1,700 crores
- The company expects to generate about Rs. 2,000 crores of profits cumulatively from ongoing and future projects (excluding land deals) from April 2024 to March 2030.
- Pre-sales guidance for FY25 remains at Rs. 2,000 crores.
- Inventory includes completed projects with decreasing unsold stock:
- Ashiana Town inventory expected to be cleared in next 3-4 quarters.
- Ashiana Surbhi inventory to be cleared thereafter.
- Some inventory from Lavasa worth Rs. 50 crores remains unsold and unresolved.
- The majority of inventory pending sale is from newer projects at Bhiwadi (Ashiana Town, Ashiana Surbhi).
