
Ashiana Housing LtdQ1 FY26
Ashiana Housing Ltd Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis
Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.
Price: ₹365P/E: 32.9Market Cap: ₹3.9K Cr
Management growth scorecard
Revenue
Category 3
Margin
Category 1
Fundraise
N/A
Order
Yes
Capex
Yes
3 of 4 growth signals are positive.
Full analysisRevenue guidance
Category 3- →Ashiana Housing targets close to Rs. 11,000 crores in sales between FY '25 and FY '30, aiming for cumulative profits around Rs. 2,000 crores (~18-19% after-tax margin).
- →For FY '26, top-line expected around Rs. 1,200 crores with margins still moderate due to legacy projects; significant margin improvement anticipated in FY '27 and FY '28.
- →Senior living segment is growing rapidly, with pre-sales expected to cross Rs. 450 crores this year and becoming 33% of total salable area pipeline. It is seen as a more stable and less cyclical growth driver.
- →The company plans new project launches in FY '25, including Aaroham and Amaya in Gurgaon (Q3) and Jaisingpura (Q4), which are critical for sustaining growth.
- →Focus remains on expanding in multiple residential products and cities, balancing between senior living and traditional residential across key markets (NCR, Jaipur, Jamshedpur).
- →Internal sales velocity targets: 20% sell-through at launch and 25% annually thereafter, with projects currently meeting or exceeding these benchmarks.
Margin guidance
Category 1- →Ashiana Housing expects cumulative profits of around Rs. 2,000 crores (+/-10%) on Rs. 11,000 crores of sales between FY '25 to FY '30, implying an after-tax margin of 18-19%.
- →Margins on older projects are estimated around 14-15%, with future sales expected to yield higher margins due to lower land costs and elevated price points (e.g., Amarah Phase-5 sold at Rs. 15,000/sqft vs. Rs. 6,000/sqft for Phase-1).
- →FY '26 revenue is projected at approximately Rs. 1,200 crores, with margins still low due to legacy projects; significant margin improvement expected in FY '27 and FY '28.
- →Return on equity (ROE) target is 15%+, with expectations to cross this on an economic basis by FY '26.
- →Senior living segment is growing, expected to contribute over 33% of salable area and pre-sales (targeting Rs. 450 crores pre-sales this year), providing stability and potentially better earnings quality.
- →Launches and timely project deliveries through FY '30 are critical for meeting these earnings targets.
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Fundraise plans
- →The transcript on pages 7 to 17 of the Ashiana Housing Limited Q4 & FY 2025 earnings call does not specifically mention any current or planned fundraising through new debt or equity issuance.
- →The discussion focuses on sales, profitability, project launches, senior living expansion, and buyback considerations, but no explicit references to raising fresh capital via debt or equity are made.
- →Varun Gupta mentions reliance on internal resources and existing projects for delivery and growth.
- →Buybacks are discussed but deemed tax inefficient; no mention of equity fundraising.
- →Debt-related queries or plans are not detailed in the provided excerpt.
- →Overall, based on available information, there is no indication of any immediate or future plans for new debt or equity fundraising.
Order book
Yes- →Total sales orderbook (including running projects) is about Rs. 11,000 crores.
- →Of this, approximately Rs. 4,500 crores represents sales booked but revenue not yet recognized.
- →Another Rs. 1,500 crores is attributable to launched phases not yet fully sold.
- →Unlaunched phases of existing projects have around 36 lakh square feet, estimated conservatively at Rs. 2,000 crores of sale value.
- →Future launches and sales expected to cover the gap toward Rs. 11,000 crores target.
- →Expect to maintain pre-sales at around Rs. 2,000 crores per year over FY '26 and FY '27.
- →New project launches planned: Aaroham and Amaya in Q3, Jaisingpura in Q4 of the current financial year.
- →Senior living sales expected to cross Rs. 450 crores in the current year with increasing capital allocation.
- →Some land deals under agreement but pending Condition Precedents for closure (e.g., Bangalore, Panvel, Mahindra World City Jaipur).
Capex plans
Yes- →Ashiana Housing Limited plans to launch all existing and pipeline projects totaling about Rs. 11,000 crores in sales within FY 2025-30, aiming for delivery by FY 2030.
- →The company is focusing on residential projects with varying launch timelines: Aaroham and Amaya in Q3 FY 2025, and Jaisingpura New Land in Q4 FY 2025.
- →Several land deals are in progress under Condition Precedents (CPEs) in senior living spaces (Bangalore, Panvel, Mahindra World City Jaipur), expected to close soon.
- →Senior living is a strategic growth area with increasing capital allocation, alongside regular residential real estate in core markets (NCR, Jaipur, Jamshedpur).
- →Construction cycle target is to reduce from typical 5+ years to about 4.5 years to meet deadlines.
- →Focused on deploying capital efficiently amid elevated land prices, especially in Jaipur and NCR, by exploring untapped locations or different products.
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