Ashoka Buildcon Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Construction

Full Stock Analysis
capex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 2orderbook: No informationfundraise: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Ashoka Buildcon has obtained approval for fundraising primarily for arbitrage and to realign working capital between short-term and long-term requirements. - The fundraising includes replacing certain working capital loans (WCL) with commercial papers (CPs). - Approval also includes raising Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) with a tenure of 18 to 24 months, targeted to realign working capital maturity profiles. - The company intends only to change the mix of debt and does not plan to increase overall debt. - Monetization of assets like Chennai ORR and Jaora-Nayagaon is expected to reduce debt by around Rs. 500 crores in FY25. - No specific mention of immediate equity fundraising; previous equity infusion includes approximately Rs. 150 crores planned for FY25 towards HAM projects. - Overall, fundraising efforts focus on optimizing debt structure rather than expanding total capital.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- CAPEX guidance for FY25 is approximately INR 100 to 110 crores. - Equity infusion of around INR 150 crores is expected in FY24-25 for HAM projects due to increased project costs. - Investment of INR 185 crores was made for acquiring Chennai ORR stakes, payment made before March end FY24. - No specific new strategic investments mentioned beyond ongoing asset monetization and equity commitments. - The Company aims to realign working capital and debt maturity through approvals for short and long-term debt instruments, including Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) of 18 to 24 months. - Monetization of BOT/HAM projects is expected to release capital used partly for debt reduction and working capital. Overall, the focus is on supporting ongoing projects, optimizing capital structure, and reducing working capital debt rather than large new strategic investments.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- For FY25, Ashoka Buildcon targets an order inflow of INR 12,000 to INR 15,000 crores, indicating strong growth expectations. - Revenue guidance for FY25 on the EPC standalone business is expected to grow by around 15% compared to the previous year. - The company anticipates booking around Rs.400 crores revenue from new orders in FY25, with a total order book around Rs.750 crores to be completed within the year. - Post June 2024, a significant increase in bidding activity is expected, especially from state and central government projects, which should further boost order inflows. - Management expects EBITDA margins to improve to around 9.5% in FY25 and further to 11-11.5% in FY26. - The shift towards participation in state government projects (like MSRDC) signals diversification and growth in new segments. - Overseas opportunities and diversified segments like railways, power distribution, transmission, solar, and buildings are being aggressively pursued for future growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Revenue growth target for FY25 standalone EPC business is approximately 15% over FY24. - Order inflow guidance for FY25 is robust at INR 12,000 to 15,000 crores, reflecting optimism post-elections and increased state-level participation. - EBITDA margin expected to improve to around 9.5% in FY25, with a further increase to 11%-11.5% in FY25-26. - Profit After Tax (PAT) margin guidance is in the range of 5% to 6% for FY25, depending on EBITDA margins. - Margin improvement driven by completion of low-margin projects and ramp-up of higher-margin new contracts from Q3 FY25 onwards. - Monetization of HAM and BOT projects expected to reduce working capital debt and positively impact interest cost and profits. - Overall, management expects profitability to improve significantly in FY25 and FY26 with better order book quality and execution.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- As of March 31, 2024, Ashoka Buildcon's total order book stands at approximately Rs. 11,697 crores. - Breakdown: Roads and railway projects constitute Rs. 6,214 crores (53% of total). - HAM road projects: Rs. 911 crores. - EPC road projects: Rs. 4,426 crores. - Railway projects: Rs. 877 crores. - For FY25, the company targets order inflows between Rs. 12,000 to Rs. 15,000 crores. - Revenue booked from existing orders is expected around Rs. 400 crores in FY25 alone. - Total order size is estimated at Rs. 750 crores for orders expected to be completed within FY25. - The company has broadened its bidding pipeline across segments including roads, power transmission, solar, buildings, railways, and overseas projects. - There is a focus on increasing participation in state government projects alongside national projects.