ASML Holding N.V.

Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- ASML’s order intake remains very strong, aligned closely with customer needs. - Customers' demand is outpacing supply, especially driven by AI-related infrastructure investments. - For 2026, ASML plans at least 60 low-NA EUV systems output, aiming to increase to at least 80 systems in 2027. - Production ramp-up is ongoing with quarterly move rate increases for high-performance EUV products. - The company is scaling Deep UV and application products in alignment with customer demand. - Customers are aggressively expanding capacity with long-term agreements supporting these investments. - Installed base management and upgrade services are also growing significantly due to expanding EUV installed base demand. - Discussions around export control may affect order outcomes, but the guidance range accommodates these uncertainties.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

The provided pages of the document do not mention any current or future fundraising activities through debt or equity. Key points relevant to financials and cash flow include: - Q1 free cash flow was negative EUR 2.6 billion, largely due to timing of down payments (Page 2). - Capital expenditure plans are significant, with term investments at EUR 8.4 billion (Page 2). - ASML is returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks—paid a third interim dividend and repurchased shares worth around EUR 1.1 billion in Q1 2026 (Page 2). - No statements or indications about issuing new debt or equity to raise funds. Therefore, based on the available information, there are no disclosed plans or ongoing fundraising through debt or equity.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- ASML is executing term investments at a level of EUR 8.4 billion (Page 2). - They are expanding capacity, planning to increase low-NA EUV system output to at least 60 systems in 2026 and at least 80 systems in 2027 (Pages 2, 6, 14). - ASML is scaling Deep UV and application products in alignment with this capacity expansion (Page 2). - The company is also building long lead-time items, including securing land bank and clean room space for future expansion, giving them flexibility to meet customer demand (Page 13). - Investments include increasing productivity through tool upgrades and developing next-generation tools such as the 3800F and High-NA EUV systems (Pages 6, 7). - They continue R&D investments (~EUR 1.2 billion expense expected in Q2 2026) to support technology advancements (Page 2). - ASML is prepared to use all available means to meet customer demand without wanting to be a bottleneck (Pages 13-14).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- ASML expects growth in 2026 with updated revenue guidance narrowed and increased to EUR 36-40 billion, reflecting strong demand driven by AI-related infrastructure investment. - Orders and capacity expansions are robust, with plans to ship at least 60 low-NA EUV systems in 2026 and at least 80 in 2027, more than doubling EUV capacity from 2025 to 2027. - Deep UV lithography revenue is also expected to grow, supporting customers' expansion plans alongside EUV. - Installed base management and upgrade revenue will increase significantly due to expanding EUV installed base and customer demand for performance upgrades. - Supply constraints are present but actively managed; ASML does not expect EUV to be a bottleneck and is working closely with customers to align capacity. - Long-term growth will be revisited at the Capital Markets Day with ongoing innovation in High-NA and lithography technologies supporting sustained revenue expansion.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- ASML expects continued growth in 2026 driven primarily by AI-related infrastructure investments, increasing demand for advanced logic and memory chips. - Revenue guidance for 2026 is updated to EUR 36-40 billion, up from previous estimates, reflecting strong order intake and customer demand. - Gross margin for 2026 is expected to remain between 51% and 53%. - Installed Base Management sales predicted to grow significantly in 2026 due to expanding EUV installed base and increasing demand for performance upgrades. - Net income in Q1 2026 was EUR 2.8 billion (31.4% of net sales), with EPS of EUR 7.15, supporting confidence in profitable growth. - ASML is increasing production capacity, including at least 80 low-NA EUV systems in 2027, to meet strong customer demand and sustain growth. - The company continues to invest in R&D (~EUR 1.2 billion Q2 2026) to enhance technology and drive future earnings expansion.