Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd
Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Beverages
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
๐ฐfundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company recently completed a preferential allotment (equity fundraising).
- The funds raised through this preferential allotment, along with internal accruals, will primarily finance the new expansion projects.
- There might be some minimal debt financing for the capex, but it will be very minor and easily manageable.
- The company does not foresee any significant debt requirement, expecting internal accruals and equity funds to suffice for project funding.
๐๏ธcapex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- The company plans a capex of around INR 270 crores for setting up a new plant including a distillery and bottling plant in Uttar Pradesh to cater to northern markets.
- Financing of this expansion will be primarily through internal accruals and recently raised funds via preferential allotment; debt financing is expected to be minimal and manageable.
- The new Uttar Pradesh plant aims mainly for captive use, with excess ENA capacity to be sold externally.
- Expansion plans also include entering new states such as Goa, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Pondicherry, with excise approvals expected post elections.
- The company is focused on premiumization with plans to launch new premium/super premium products across quarters ahead, which should enhance margins.
- Ethanol segment has a recently operational plant producing revenue expected at around INR 300 crores in FY25, with full capacity utilization anticipated.
๐revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Overall revenue growth of around 15% expected, including ethanol segment (Page 14).
- IMFL proprietary brands projected to grow 15%-20% in both volume and realization (Page 14).
- IMFL licensed segment expects steady growth with plans to enter new states (Goa, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Pondicherry, UP) from Q2 FY25 onward (Page 11).
- Premium and super-premium products launch planned, targeting 18%-20% growth in this segment, improving margins (Pages 10-14).
- Ethanol segment revenue estimated at around INR 300 crores for FY25 with full capacity utilization (Pages 12-16).
- IMIL volumes likely to remain stable due to government caps, but price hikes aid top-line growth (Page 11).
- Company anticipates mid-double digit EBITDA margin with operational efficiencies and better fixed cost utilization (Pages 9-13).
๐margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company expects EBITDA margin improvement going forward due to price hikes and full capacity utilization of the ethanol plant, leading to better fixed cost absorption.
- IMFL proprietary brands are projected to grow at 15%-20% in volume and realization, contributing to revenue growth.
- Overall revenue growth guidance is around 15%-16% for FY25, supported by expansion and premium product launches.
- Ethanol segment revenue is anticipated to be around INR 300 crores in FY25 with EBITDA margins between 8%-9%.
- EBITDA margins are forecasted to be in the mid-double-digit range (between 10%-16%).
- The company expects sustained double-digit growth in premium products, targeting 18%-20% growth.
- Profit after tax (PAT) grew 22% YoY in FY24, indicating positive momentum.
- No significant debt expected for capex; expansion primarily funded through internal accruals and preferential allotment.
๐orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The ethanol plant is tied up with orders at 100% capacity utilization until January 2025.
- The company has orders in hand for full capacity ethanol production, ensuring no supply gaps until the contract expires.
- Post-January 2025, a new tender will be launched; the company expects continued demand due to governmentโs 20% ethanol blend target by 2025.
- For FY25, ethanol segment revenue is expected around INR 300 crores.
- The company is continuously bidding for tenders with all Oil Marketing Companies (ONCs) and has secured full-year contracts.
- Expansion plans include new states for IMFL proprietary brands, with approvals expected post-election cycles.
- Overall, the order book for ethanol is firm till Jan 2025, with strong demand outlook aligned with government blending targets.
