Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Beverages

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company recently completed a preferential allotment (equity fundraising). - The funds raised through this preferential allotment, along with internal accruals, will primarily finance the new expansion projects. - There might be some minimal debt financing for the capex, but it will be very minor and easily manageable. - The company does not foresee any significant debt requirement, expecting internal accruals and equity funds to suffice for project funding.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- The company plans a capex of around INR 270 crores for setting up a new plant including a distillery and bottling plant in Uttar Pradesh to cater to northern markets. - Financing of this expansion will be primarily through internal accruals and recently raised funds via preferential allotment; debt financing is expected to be minimal and manageable. - The new Uttar Pradesh plant aims mainly for captive use, with excess ENA capacity to be sold externally. - Expansion plans also include entering new states such as Goa, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Pondicherry, with excise approvals expected post elections. - The company is focused on premiumization with plans to launch new premium/super premium products across quarters ahead, which should enhance margins. - Ethanol segment has a recently operational plant producing revenue expected at around INR 300 crores in FY25, with full capacity utilization anticipated.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Overall revenue growth of around 15% expected, including ethanol segment (Page 14). - IMFL proprietary brands projected to grow 15%-20% in both volume and realization (Page 14). - IMFL licensed segment expects steady growth with plans to enter new states (Goa, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Pondicherry, UP) from Q2 FY25 onward (Page 11). - Premium and super-premium products launch planned, targeting 18%-20% growth in this segment, improving margins (Pages 10-14). - Ethanol segment revenue estimated at around INR 300 crores for FY25 with full capacity utilization (Pages 12-16). - IMIL volumes likely to remain stable due to government caps, but price hikes aid top-line growth (Page 11). - Company anticipates mid-double digit EBITDA margin with operational efficiencies and better fixed cost utilization (Pages 9-13).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company expects EBITDA margin improvement going forward due to price hikes and full capacity utilization of the ethanol plant, leading to better fixed cost absorption. - IMFL proprietary brands are projected to grow at 15%-20% in volume and realization, contributing to revenue growth. - Overall revenue growth guidance is around 15%-16% for FY25, supported by expansion and premium product launches. - Ethanol segment revenue is anticipated to be around INR 300 crores in FY25 with EBITDA margins between 8%-9%. - EBITDA margins are forecasted to be in the mid-double-digit range (between 10%-16%). - The company expects sustained double-digit growth in premium products, targeting 18%-20% growth. - Profit after tax (PAT) grew 22% YoY in FY24, indicating positive momentum. - No significant debt expected for capex; expansion primarily funded through internal accruals and preferential allotment.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The ethanol plant is tied up with orders at 100% capacity utilization until January 2025. - The company has orders in hand for full capacity ethanol production, ensuring no supply gaps until the contract expires. - Post-January 2025, a new tender will be launched; the company expects continued demand due to governmentโ€™s 20% ethanol blend target by 2025. - For FY25, ethanol segment revenue is expected around INR 300 crores. - The company is continuously bidding for tenders with all Oil Marketing Companies (ONCs) and has secured full-year contracts. - Expansion plans include new states for IMFL proprietary brands, with approvals expected post-election cycles. - Overall, the order book for ethanol is firm till Jan 2025, with strong demand outlook aligned with government blending targets.