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Associated Alcohols & Breweries LtdQ4 FY25

Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd Q4 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 842P/E: 19.4Market Cap: ₹1.7K CrSector: Beverages

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 1

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 3 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Expansion into new states (Goa, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Pondicherry, Assam) planned from April FY25 to drive topline growth.
  • Focus on premiumization of IMFL products with new premium launches each quarter, expected to boost realizations and margins.
  • IMFL proprietary brand sales projected to grow 15%-18% YoY; licensed IMFL segment expected to grow 12%-15% YoY; premium lines targeted at 18%-20% YoY growth.
  • Ethanol plant operating at full capacity from February 2024, expected revenue INR250-300 crores in FY25, enhancing margins and overall EBITDA.
  • IMIL segment volume expected to remain stable due to policy constraints, with focus shifting towards premium and IMFL products for growth.
  • Merchant ENA sales showing significant growth (+29% YoY), contributing positively to revenue.
  • Overall EBITDA margin expected to improve over time as premium product mix grows and ethanol business stabilizes.

Margin guidance

Category 1
  • The company targets double-digit EBITDA margins post-ethanol production, with FY25 margins expected in the lower double digits and higher margins anticipated in FY26.
  • EBITDA margin expanded by 200 bps recently due to increased sales of premium products and is expected to grow further with premiumization strategies.
  • IMFL proprietary brands are projected to grow 15%-18% YOY; licensed IMFL brands 12%-15% YOY; premium products 18%-20% YOY.
  • Ethanol plant commercialization is expected to scale to 100% capacity by February 2024, generating INR250-300 crores turnover in FY25, improving operational efficiency and margins.
  • The company anticipates sustained PAT growth with recent quarters showing 16%-21% YOY increases.
  • Premiumization and cost controls, including shift to PET bottles and multi-feedstock strategy, aim to enhance profitability and EPS growth.
  • Margins to benefit from economies of scale due to ethanol integration and favorable government policies supporting ethanol blending expansion.

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Fundraise plans

  • The company plans a capital expenditure (capex) of INR150 to INR200 crores for setting up a 100 KL plant and bottling unit in Uttar Pradesh.
  • This capex is expected to be funded mostly through internal accruals.
  • No explicit mention of raising new funds through debt or equity was made in the discussion.
  • The company currently has surplus cash and is managing raw material procurement and other expenses internally.
  • No additional updates on future fundraising through debt or equity were stated.

Order book

  • The ethanol plant has already received orders booked for 100% of its capacity.
  • The company is in the process of stabilizing the ethanol plant and expects to operate it at full capacity within 1-2 weeks from the call date.
  • There is no concern about capacity utilization as full capacity contracts have been signed with Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs).
  • The company is leveraging existing capacities and orders to ensure full utilization and sales post-stabilization.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Planned Greenfield project in Uttar Pradesh with a 100KL ENA plant and bottling unit targeting northern states and the northeastern market.
  • Expected capex for the UP plant is INR 150-200 crores, funded mostly from internal accruals.
  • Initial plan to set up the bottling plant quickly and purchase ENA externally; subsequently, utilize internally produced ENA once the plant is operational.
  • Expansion into new states: Goa and Maharashtra finalized bottling arrangements; plans to enter Karnataka, Pondicherry, and Assam in the current financial year.
  • Focus on growing premium IMFL products, including newly launched Nicobar Gin and Central Province Rum, with more premium product launches planned quarterly.
  • Ethanol plant commercialized recently, with capacity utilization expected to reach 100% soon, contributing to margin expansion and revenue growth.

How does Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd rank vs peers in Beverages?

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1Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd
Rev 3Mar 1

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