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Associated Alcohols & Breweries LtdQ1 FY24

Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 842P/E: 19.4Market Cap: ₹1.7K CrSector: Beverages

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Overall revenue growth of around 15% expected, including ethanol segment (Page 14).
  • IMFL proprietary brands projected to grow 15%-20% in both volume and realization (Page 14).
  • IMFL licensed segment expects steady growth with plans to enter new states (Goa, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Pondicherry, UP) from Q2 FY25 onward (Page 11).
  • Premium and super-premium products launch planned, targeting 18%-20% growth in this segment, improving margins (Pages 10-14).
  • Ethanol segment revenue estimated at around INR 300 crores for FY25 with full capacity utilization (Pages 12-16).
  • IMIL volumes likely to remain stable due to government caps, but price hikes aid top-line growth (Page 11).
  • Company anticipates mid-double digit EBITDA margin with operational efficiencies and better fixed cost utilization (Pages 9-13).

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • The company expects EBITDA margin improvement going forward due to price hikes and full capacity utilization of the ethanol plant, leading to better fixed cost absorption.
  • IMFL proprietary brands are projected to grow at 15%-20% in volume and realization, contributing to revenue growth.
  • Overall revenue growth guidance is around 15%-16% for FY25, supported by expansion and premium product launches.
  • Ethanol segment revenue is anticipated to be around INR 300 crores in FY25 with EBITDA margins between 8%-9%.
  • EBITDA margins are forecasted to be in the mid-double-digit range (between 10%-16%).
  • The company expects sustained double-digit growth in premium products, targeting 18%-20% growth.
  • Profit after tax (PAT) grew 22% YoY in FY24, indicating positive momentum.
  • No significant debt expected for capex; expansion primarily funded through internal accruals and preferential allotment.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • The company recently completed a preferential allotment (equity fundraising).
  • The funds raised through this preferential allotment, along with internal accruals, will primarily finance the new expansion projects.
  • There might be some minimal debt financing for the capex, but it will be very minor and easily manageable.
  • The company does not foresee any significant debt requirement, expecting internal accruals and equity funds to suffice for project funding.

Order book

  • The ethanol plant is tied up with orders at 100% capacity utilization until January 2025.
  • The company has orders in hand for full capacity ethanol production, ensuring no supply gaps until the contract expires.
  • Post-January 2025, a new tender will be launched; the company expects continued demand due to government’s 20% ethanol blend target by 2025.
  • For FY25, ethanol segment revenue is expected around INR 300 crores.
  • The company is continuously bidding for tenders with all Oil Marketing Companies (ONCs) and has secured full-year contracts.
  • Expansion plans include new states for IMFL proprietary brands, with approvals expected post-election cycles.
  • Overall, the order book for ethanol is firm till Jan 2025, with strong demand outlook aligned with government blending targets.

Capex plans

Yes
  • The company plans a capex of around INR 270 crores for setting up a new plant including a distillery and bottling plant in Uttar Pradesh to cater to northern markets.
  • Financing of this expansion will be primarily through internal accruals and recently raised funds via preferential allotment; debt financing is expected to be minimal and manageable.
  • The new Uttar Pradesh plant aims mainly for captive use, with excess ENA capacity to be sold externally.
  • Expansion plans also include entering new states such as Goa, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Pondicherry, with excise approvals expected post elections.
  • The company is focused on premiumization with plans to launch new premium/super premium products across quarters ahead, which should enhance margins.
  • Ethanol segment has a recently operational plant producing revenue expected at around INR 300 crores in FY25, with full capacity utilization anticipated.

How does Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd rank vs peers in Beverages?

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1Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd
Rev 3Mar 3

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