Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.

Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Banks

Full Stock Analysis
revenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No informationfundraise: No informationcapex: Yes
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- BBVA expects continued growth in net interest income (NII) supported by strong loan growth and stabilizing or rising interest rates in core markets like Spain and Mexico. - Activity-driven NII growth is viewed as more controllable and may provide upside, particularly if the Mexican peso remains strong. - Fees and commissions are growing faster than NII, driven by payments, asset management, insurance, and CIB businesses, with an ongoing fee bias. - Digital banks in Italy and Germany are growing faster than original plans but are still posting losses; break-even is expected earlier than the typical 9-10 years. - Operating expenses increased due to investments and restructuring costs, but efficiency ratios improved to 38%, better than guidance. - Strong loan growth (e.g., 17% year-over-year) and positive jaws effect contribute to profitability. - Tangible book value per share plus dividends grew 14.7% year-over-year; ROE and ROTCE further improved to 20.7% and 21.7%, respectively. - Management maintains discipline in capital allocation, prioritizing markets and businesses delivering returns above cost of equity.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

The provided pages do not contain specific information about the current or expected order book or pending orders. The text focuses mainly on: - Global Markets revenue breakdown, FX business contribution (~40%) - Trading volatility impact and ALCO book duration extension strategies - Efficiency and cost management in Mexico with a focus on mid- to long-term goals - Macroeconomic outlook for Latin America amid geopolitical concerns - Hedging strategies in Mexico and Turkey regarding currency risk - Performance updates on digital banking and client acquisition in Europe (Italy, Germany) - Share buyback plans, capital distribution, and transformation strategies involving AI-driven initiatives. No explicit details regarding order book size, expected orders, or pending orders are mentioned in the provided content.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- BBVA completed the first and second tranches of a nearly EUR 4 billion share buyback program and plans to start the third tranche early next week (starting May 6). Around EUR 1.5 billion remains to be spent in this buyback. - There is no explicit mention of new fundraising through debt or additional equity issuances in the information provided. - The bank continues to execute its SRT (Securitization) and asset mobilization plan throughout the year, with SRTs contributing 12 basis points to capital ratios this quarter, in line with the guidance of doing between 30 and 40 basis points per year. - Capital allocation involves ongoing assessment, including potential disposals of non-core assets (e.g., Romania, Atom Bank disposal under consideration) but no detailed fundraising plans stated. Overall, BBVA appears focused on capital return via buybacks and risk transfer strategies rather than raising new capital through equity or debt at this point.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- BBVA continues investing in different horizon periods, with some investments expecting payback within this year, next year, or even 2-3 years. - The focus is on efficiency improvements, especially in Mexico, targeting a mid/long-term efficiency level of about 30.8%. - Investment emphasis is on digital transformation and AI initiatives, aiming to scale AI adoption across the bank to transform banking operations and client services. - BBVA is also progressing with its SRT (software-related transformation) and asset mobilization plans throughout the year. - The bank integrates AI into multiple banking aspects including personal advisers, risk, operations, and software development to enhance competitiveness. - Capital allocation remains an ongoing exercise, with consideration given to divesting from non-core markets where competitive advantage is lacking. - There is a commitment to disciplined cost and capital management, balancing growth investments with maintaining efficiency and capital generation.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Global Markets business, particularly FX, is a core driver and expected to continue growing due to client trading activity and market volatility. - Fee growth is prioritized over net interest income (NII) in certain business areas, with a focus on increasing fee percentage, especially in Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB) and digital banks. - Mexico shows strong loan growth momentum (8.4% YoY), supported by pipeline activity and government infrastructure plans, with positive outlook for NII growth linked to rate stability. - Spain exhibits solid revenue growth (5.4% YoY gross income) driven by loan growth (6.3%) and stable customer spreads; however, mortgage lending remains selective. - Digital banks in Italy and Germany are growing customer bases rapidly but are still in investment phases, with break-even expected earlier than typical 9-10 years. - Overall, BBVA anticipates steady growth supported by strong client activity, innovation (AI initiatives), and disciplined capital allocation.