Bharat Forge Ltd
Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
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fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- There is no mention of any current or future fundraising activities through debt or equity in the provided transcript.
- The company discusses stable normalized interest outgo of about ₹60-65 crores per quarter based on current interest rates, indicating ongoing debt servicing but no new fundraising.
- Focus appears to be on organic growth, ramping up production, and technology absorption rather than raising new capital.
- Management states no plans for complicated or foreign acquisitions; emphasis is on bolt-on acquisitions within India.
- There is no explicit reference to plans for raising funds via equity or additional borrowing in the recent or upcoming periods.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Acquisition of ISML (Coimbatore) to close in two weeks, adding to capacity and capabilities.
- Capital expenditure (CAPEX) in Coimbatore, JSA, and ISML to more than double forging capacity from ~40,000 tons to over 120,000 tons in two years.
- Revenues expected to more than double in two years from current levels, driven by new units and CAPEX.
- Focus on creating a green foundry with least carbon footprint and emissions for sustainable growth.
- Ramp-up of new plant for electric two-wheelers started production recently, targeting capacity utilization of 1,500 to 1,800 bikes shortly, then 2,000+.
- Joint venture with Talgo for manufacturing high-speed trains in India under technical evaluation and nearing conclusion.
- No large acquisitions planned except platform bolt-ons like JSA and ISML within India, emphasizing organic growth and Indian manufacturing base.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Aerospace business has grown more than 100% and is expected to continue growing at 30%-50% in FY23.
- Industrial business, including forging and casting, is expected to sustain double-digit growth, fueled by renewable energy, Make in India, and infrastructure development.
- Domestic truck market is expected to see single-digit growth this year with stable demand.
- Defense business aims to exceed $100 million revenue this year, with capacity tripling by early 2024, driving substantial growth next year.
- Overseas aluminum businesses are expected to improve, contributing positively to consolidated ratios.
- Standalone business anticipates strong growth in revenues, profitability, and return ratios in FY24.
- Overall positive outlook on commercial vehicles globally with steady demand and market share gains.
- E-mobility segment to ramp production and build scalable supply for future growth.
- New order wins of around ₹1,500 crore in standalone component and industrial verticals support growth momentum.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- FY24 is expected to be a seminal year with strong growth across revenues, profitability, and return ratios, driven by forging business in India and abroad along with defense, industrial, and E-mobility platforms.
- Overseas aluminum businesses are expected to improve profitability and contribute positively to consolidated ratios.
- Defense business target is to cross $100 million in revenue for FY23, with substantial growth projected next year due to new mega plant capacity expansion.
- Aerospace sector has grown more than 100% in FY23 and is expected to grow 30-50% in FY24.
- Industrial business expects to continue double-digit growth, aided by growth in renewable energy and infrastructure development in India.
- US and European operations are expected to turn profitable starting Q1 and Q3 respectively, improving overall earnings.
- EBITDA margin targets include mid-teen margins in medium term for the overseas subsidiaries post ramp-up and price recovery.
- Indian truck market growth projected at single-digit in FY24, supporting domestic earnings expansion.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Defense Business order book includes export orders of over ₹2000 crore.
- Approval of AoN for 300 AT AGS guns, with the RFQ expected soon and order placement this year.
- Defense order for 307 AT AGS guns to be executed over four years from first supply year.
- Defense revenue expected to cross $100 million in the current year, with plans for substantial growth next year.
- New mega defense plant with triple the current capacity to start production by Jan-Feb 2024.
- New order wins of about ₹1500 crore across component and industrial verticals in standalone business.
- Aerospace business growing over 100% last year, expected growth of 30-50% in FY23, aiming for ₹500-600 crore annual revenue in a few years.
- Stable industrial and oil & gas orders, with double-digit growth expected in the industrial sector.
