Bharat Forge Ltd
Q2 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Auto Components
margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Bharat Forge plans a total CAPEX of about ₹1,000 crores spread over the current and next financial year, including subsidiaries.
- The CAPEX will be for growth of manufacturing footprint in India, targeting both global and Indian opportunities.
- It will involve a combination of Greenfield (organic expansion) and inorganic acquisitions.
- The focus remains on allied metallurgical products and value-additions related to existing business areas, aimed at creating more customer traction.
- The US aluminum operations have a phase two CAPEX ongoing, which is a 28 to 30 months project and will continue despite recent weakness.
- The new plant for the defense wholly owned subsidiary KSSL is expected to commence operations around October-November 2024.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Defense business expected to grow over 50% this year, with a robust and expanding order pipeline.
- Aerospace segment forecasted to grow 15-20% this year with strong double-digit growth next year.
- Industrial business anticipated to continue growing and improving.
- Exports show volatility but expected to be steady with ongoing efforts to increase market share.
- Oil and gas export business showing positive momentum and heading towards growth.
- European operations expect stable to slightly positive top-line due to pricing actions.
- US volume declines expected to be short-term; volumes likely to recover by Q4.
- Domestic CV market flat (+/-5%) with heavier order inflows expected in Q3 and Q4.
- Overall outlook is stable to positive across automotive, defense, and industrial segments with new growth trajectory.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Bharat Forge expects a stable to positive overall year with growth opportunities across automotive, defense, and industrial segments.
- Defense business is projected to achieve over 50% growth this year with a robust order pipeline.
- Overseas subsidiaries, especially Europe, anticipate substantial improvement in EBITDA and reduction in losses by FY25-end and stronger performance in FY26.
- The aerospace segment expects 15-20% growth this year, followed by strong double-digit growth next year.
- Oil and gas business is showing positive momentum, supporting export growth.
- JSA Auto division is on track to cross Rs. 1000 crores sales with a strong EBITDA growth and profitability increase.
- Pricing actions and operational improvements in overseas businesses are expected to improve margins progressively through FY25.
- Overall, management is optimistic about margin improvements, operational performance, and sustainable growth across segments, supporting better earnings and EPS in the near to medium term.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Current defense order book is around Rs. 5,400 crores.
- Execution of defense orders is running faster than expected; previously anticipated to take 3-4 years.
- Significant new orders have been won across vehicles, artillery, and MRO items.
- ATAGS artillery order (about 307 guns) valued at roughly Rs. 4,000 to 4,500 crores is close to finalization.
- Orders for guns and artillery across various categories represent a sizable opportunity, both in India and globally.
- The company has a robust pipeline with a mix of long-term, new, and existing orders generating revenue.
- Order intake corresponds to deliveries 18 to 24 months ahead, indicating a healthy order pipeline for this year and next.
- No immediate impact on business expected from this order intake as it's well in advance.
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- Bharat Forge Limited is planning a fundraising of up to ₹2,000 crores.
- The fundraise is focused solely on growth-oriented deployment within India.
- It will support expansion of manufacturing footprint for both global and Indian opportunities.
- The fundraising will be a combination of both Greenfield (organic) and inorganic (acquisition) growth.
- This is the first equity raise since 2010-11.
- The company is evaluating each investment decision on its merits but intends to focus growth and expansion primarily in India.
