Bharat Forge Ltd

Q2 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

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margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Bharat Forge plans a total CAPEX of about ₹1,000 crores spread over the current and next financial year, including subsidiaries. - The CAPEX will be for growth of manufacturing footprint in India, targeting both global and Indian opportunities. - It will involve a combination of Greenfield (organic expansion) and inorganic acquisitions. - The focus remains on allied metallurgical products and value-additions related to existing business areas, aimed at creating more customer traction. - The US aluminum operations have a phase two CAPEX ongoing, which is a 28 to 30 months project and will continue despite recent weakness. - The new plant for the defense wholly owned subsidiary KSSL is expected to commence operations around October-November 2024.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Defense business expected to grow over 50% this year, with a robust and expanding order pipeline. - Aerospace segment forecasted to grow 15-20% this year with strong double-digit growth next year. - Industrial business anticipated to continue growing and improving. - Exports show volatility but expected to be steady with ongoing efforts to increase market share. - Oil and gas export business showing positive momentum and heading towards growth. - European operations expect stable to slightly positive top-line due to pricing actions. - US volume declines expected to be short-term; volumes likely to recover by Q4. - Domestic CV market flat (+/-5%) with heavier order inflows expected in Q3 and Q4. - Overall outlook is stable to positive across automotive, defense, and industrial segments with new growth trajectory.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Bharat Forge expects a stable to positive overall year with growth opportunities across automotive, defense, and industrial segments. - Defense business is projected to achieve over 50% growth this year with a robust order pipeline. - Overseas subsidiaries, especially Europe, anticipate substantial improvement in EBITDA and reduction in losses by FY25-end and stronger performance in FY26. - The aerospace segment expects 15-20% growth this year, followed by strong double-digit growth next year. - Oil and gas business is showing positive momentum, supporting export growth. - JSA Auto division is on track to cross Rs. 1000 crores sales with a strong EBITDA growth and profitability increase. - Pricing actions and operational improvements in overseas businesses are expected to improve margins progressively through FY25. - Overall, management is optimistic about margin improvements, operational performance, and sustainable growth across segments, supporting better earnings and EPS in the near to medium term.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current defense order book is around Rs. 5,400 crores. - Execution of defense orders is running faster than expected; previously anticipated to take 3-4 years. - Significant new orders have been won across vehicles, artillery, and MRO items. - ATAGS artillery order (about 307 guns) valued at roughly Rs. 4,000 to 4,500 crores is close to finalization. - Orders for guns and artillery across various categories represent a sizable opportunity, both in India and globally. - The company has a robust pipeline with a mix of long-term, new, and existing orders generating revenue. - Order intake corresponds to deliveries 18 to 24 months ahead, indicating a healthy order pipeline for this year and next. - No immediate impact on business expected from this order intake as it's well in advance.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Bharat Forge Limited is planning a fundraising of up to ₹2,000 crores. - The fundraise is focused solely on growth-oriented deployment within India. - It will support expansion of manufacturing footprint for both global and Indian opportunities. - The fundraising will be a combination of both Greenfield (organic) and inorganic (acquisition) growth. - This is the first equity raise since 2010-11. - The company is evaluating each investment decision on its merits but intends to focus growth and expansion primarily in India.