CEAT Ltd
Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Auto Components
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- No explicit mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity in the current or future period.
- The company has reduced debt by about INR 450 crores over the last three quarters but does not plan to reduce debt aggressively to INR 1,000 crores.
- Current debt level is about INR 1,890 crores with a healthy debt-to-EBITDA ratio of around 1.1-1.2 and debt-equity of about 0.5x.
- The company prefers to use cash generated beyond the capex plan for productive investments rather than aggressively deleveraging.
- Capital expenditure for FY '24 is around INR 800 crores focusing on bite-sized expansions without plans for large greenfield projects.
- No mention of issuing equity or raising funds beyond existing capex and working capital needs.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Full-year capex expected around INR 800 crores for FY '24, slightly up from earlier estimate of INR 750 crores. (Page 5)
- INR 170 crores capex spent in Q2, totaling INR 390 crores in H1 FY '24. (Page 5)
- Capex includes routine spend (~INR 200 crores) on R&D, IT, digital, moulds, maintenance. (Page 9)
- Around INR 600 crores focused on capacity expansion:
- Truck & Bus Radial (TBR) ~INR 100 crores
- Off-The-Road (OTR) tyres ~INR 250 crores
- Downstream capacity additions at Nagpur and debottlenecking at Halol. (Page 9)
- Ambernath plant expanding upstream specialty capacity from 105 to 160 tons/day, expected commissioning by Q1/Q2 FY '25. (Pages 9, 16)
- Strategy focused on "bite-sized" capex yearly to maintain margin and return consistency, no major greenfield expected for next 2 years. (Pages 4, 10)
- Acquisition: CEAT made TyresNmore a fully owned subsidiary through INR 20 crores investment. (Page 6)
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Volume growth in Q2 FY24 was 7% year-on-year, with exports growing about 10%.
- Replacement volumes grew around 4% year-on-year; domestic off-highway and passenger car tyres show strong double-digit and significant growth respectively.
- OEM business is robust with volume growth around 10%; truck/bus volumes grew over 35%.
- Capacity utilization is improving, with overall utilization around 80%; expansion plans expected to add INR 2,000 crores revenue potential by FY26.
- Current capacity peak revenue potential is slightly over INR14,000 crores (as of March 31, 2023) excluding upcoming expansions.
- Adding new assets and debottlenecking are expected to increase revenue potential by INR 2,000 crores plus by FY26.
- OTR capacity to ramp from current 105 tons to 160 tons by FY24-end; further expansion under evaluation based on utilization.
- Focus on higher rim-size tyres suggests positive volume and margin growth over next 2-3 years.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Q2 FY24 saw consolidated revenue growth of 5.5% YoY, driven largely by volume growth.
- EBITDA margin improved to 15.1% (standalone 15%), highest in 6 years.
- Raw material costs expected to rise by about 3-4% in Q3 due to increased crude and rubber prices, potentially pressuring margins.
- Pricing flexibility exists especially in the passenger segment to partially offset RM cost increase.
- Focus on higher saliency segments (2/3-wheeler, 4-wheeler, off-highway) expected to improve product mix and margins.
- Capacity utilization improved to ~80% overall, with potential to increase revenue potential to over INR16,000 crores by FY26 after expansions and debottlenecking.
- Truck/bus radial segment showing strong volume growth (35%+ in OEM).
- Working capital and debt levels stable; focus on capital productivity and ROCE.
- Overall cautious optimism on earnings growth with margin management amidst commodity cost pressures.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- In Q3, OEMs are optimistic due to festive demand in October and November, with good retail offtakes in September.
- December is expected to see seasonal demand slowdown, picking up again by February-March.
- Current OEM demand is varied by segment: two-wheeler OEM demand flat to slight de-growth; four-wheeler OEM demand strong and growing; truck segment recovering with single-digit growth.
- Europe is still facing destocking in trade and OEM channels, with demand expected to improve by end of Q3 and Q4.
- No specific quantitative data on exact current orderbook or pending orders provided, but the outlook is cautiously optimistic with seasonal and regional variations affecting order flow.
