CIE Automotive India Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

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Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No specific current or advanced stage fundraising through M&A or equity is mentioned. - The company is actively looking for M&A opportunities in India, particularly to add customers and new business segments. - They will only pursue M&A if it is deemed appropriate, not just because of available cash. - No mention of new debt fundraising or equity issuance in the provided content. - Interest costs in Europe have increased due to higher interest rates, but no plans mentioned for new debt. - The company is managing cash and debt considering cost of borrowing and cash pooling arbitrage.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- India business has been making growth capex of about Rs. 200 to 250 Crores per year for the last 2-3 years, with similar plans for the near future. - Investments are made against committed orders, though some ramp-ups have been delayed but expected to happen. - New and expansion capex examples include: - New plant at CIE Hosur. - Expansion in the aluminum EV four-wheeler space. - Investments in Mahindra’s EV new models. - New tractor models from Mahindra. - Strategic investments/M&A approach: - Actively looking for M&A opportunities in India, especially to add customers and new business segments like aluminum and four-wheelers. - No advanced M&A deals in the pipeline currently. - M&A will be pursued only if appropriate and value-accretive, not just because of available cash. - Cash balance expected to be around Rs. 500 Crores by year-end, with no immediate plans disclosed for debt repayment or other strategic capital deployment.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- India aims to grow sales approximately 5% or more above the weighted average market growth in the medium term (2-3 years). - New project ramp-ups delayed but expected to drive better growth results once they start, especially in aluminum EVs, four-wheelers, and tractors. - The company targets growth across almost every vertical in India with continued investments and expansion. - Europe expects flat or slight declines in car production, but plans to outperform the market through new orders, especially in electric vehicles. - Electric vehicle-related orders comprise a significant portion of new projects (74% in Europe, 10% in India) with ramp-ups expected over the next 1-2 years. - Two-wheeler exports have dipped but domestic demand is picking up; festive seasons are expected to boost sales. - Metalcastello in the US facing cyclical slowdown with a 15-20% drop expected but new EV orders are anticipated to compensate in the near future.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company expects to achieve the highest PAT in its history in calendar year 2023, with recurring PAT growth of 20% year-to-date (YTD), excluding onetime profits. - Margin improvement is viewed as a "never ending story" with identified gaps and ongoing projects aimed at further efficiency gains, particularly in India. - Growth capex of about Rs. 500-750 Crores has been committed with expected ramp-ups in new projects, especially in electric vehicle (EV) segments and new customer orders, although some ramp-ups have been delayed. - The company aims to grow at least 5-6% higher than the weighted average market growth in India over the medium term (2-3 years). - European operations expect recovery and improved results in 2024, particularly from EV orders and stabilization of power costs, supporting earnings growth. - Ongoing efficiency improvements and new project ramp-ups are expected to contribute to future margin and profit growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- In India, CIE Automotive has been investing significantly with growth capex averaging ₹200-250 Crores annually, supported by committed orders. - The company has new plants and expansions, such as the aluminum EV four-wheeler plant at Hosur. - Several new model ramp-ups, including Mahindra’s EVs and new tractor models, are underway but have experienced some delays. - Approximately 50 customers in India have sales exceeding ₹10 million per annum, with around half added in the last 2-3 years, indicating ongoing customer addition as a key growth strategy. - In Europe, 74% of new orders this year are for electric vehicles, reflecting alignment with market trends. - Metalcastello expects order recoveries for US light trucks and EV programs, with around $28-30 million in orders in the passenger vehicle vertical. - Delays in customer new EV orders ramp-up are noted but expected to commence and provide growth from 2024 onwards.